VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, September 6
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 6, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, NY METS, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 3, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 135-93 record, but for -88.67 units. This is an R.O.I. of -38.9%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was actually 8-1 for +4.9 units however, a rare winning week for these high-priced teams.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 127-45 for +32.69 units as of Tuesday, September 5. This coming after an 8-2 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +19%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 22-3 for +15.09 units.
System Match: ATLANTA
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 62-61 for -74.57 units! This angle was 4-2 last week and again lost –0.45 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -58.9%!
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 15-10 (+8.26 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 303-303 for +71.76 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 7-8 (-1.1 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 205-212 for -38.86 units, an R.O.I. of -9.3%. After a 3-4 result (-1.72 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 79-102 for -25.77 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.2%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ST LOUIS, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE CINCINNATI
3+ games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE MIAMI
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 211-139 for +25.03 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 7.2%. These better bullpen teams had another profitable week, +2.59 units on a 13-7 performance.
System Matches: TORONTO, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since August 28, when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 219-164 for +13.43 units after a 12-6 (+5.1 units) record the last seven days. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 5-1 week and have now gone 106-69 for +24.41 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.9% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-games – ATLANTA
3+ games – SEATTLE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 305-277 (52.5%) for +41.74 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 7.2%.
System Match: TEXAS
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1433-1338 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE NY METS, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE HOUSTON
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE PHILADELPHIA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE MIAMI, FADE CINCINNATI, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE ATLANTA, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE SAN DIEGO
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 272-125 (68.5%) for +56.55 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%!
System Match: ATLANTA
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 238-192 (55.3%) for +46.12 units and an R.O.I. of 10.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: TEXAS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 67-53 outright (+6.79 units, ROI: 5.7%).
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX, SAN FRANCISCO
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 92-88 (+17.74 units, ROI: 9.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: LA ANGELS, SAN FRANCISCO
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 116-81 (+20.08 units, ROI: 10.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: MIAMI
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 142-88 in their last 230 tries (+26.76 units, ROI: 11.6%).
System Match: MIAMI
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 48-50 (-22.70 units, ROI: -23.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH (+34), SAN DIEGO (+19), ST LOUIS (+47), DETROIT (+18), HOUSTON (+46), CINCINNATI (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BALTIMORE (+53)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO-OAKLAND OVER 8 (+0.74)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DETROIT-NY YANKEES UNDER 9 (-0.78)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MILWAUKEE (77-61) at (952) PITTSBURGH (64-75)
Trend: Milwaukee has winning record vs Pittsburgh this season (8-4)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee has been good against RH starters (60-39, +17.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER on the ROAD (26-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending more UNDER during DAY (25-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (70-69) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (75-64)
Trend: San Francisco better against LH starters (23-16, +5.84 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (28-32, -11.32 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: Chicago trending OVER during the DAY (34-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago pretty good at HOME (39-31 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
(955) COLORADO (51-87) at (956) ARIZONA (71-68)
Trend: Colorado not good against RH starters (32-63, -18.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Arizona dominant against Colorado this season (9-3 record)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER in HOME games (27-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(957) PHILADELPHIA (76-62) at (958) SAN DIEGO (66-74)
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (34-21, +6.90 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good against NL Central/West (32-25 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (42-55, -34.64 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (19-26 O/U during the DAY, 28-40 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-53) at (960) MIAMI (71-67)
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (63-33, +14.03 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD better against RH starters (63-32, +17.75 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: Miami not as good against NL teams (45-47, -9.11 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending UNDER a couple of ways (31-36 O/U at HOME, 18-34 O/U against NL Central/West)
System Match: UNDER
(961) NEW YORK-NL (64-74) at (962) WASHINGTON (62-77)
Trend: NYM not great record on ROAD (29-41, -19.42 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM slight UNDER in division (15-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (28-41, -4.52 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES this season (NYM 7 – WAS 5)
(963) ST LOUIS (60-78) at (964) ATLANTA (90-47)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (33-57, -35.51 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER in ROAD games (29-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (38-28 O/U at HOME, 50-40 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (64-27, +18.75 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
(965) MINNESOTA (73-66) at (966) CLEVELAND (66-73)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD series on 8-4 UNDER run this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota not as good on the ROAD (33-37, -7.53 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Cleveland decent against RH starters (46-44, +0.83 units)
System Match: CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at HOME (24-46 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(967) TORONTO (77-62) at (968) OAKLAND (42-97)
Trend: Toronto good against LH starters (18-12, +1.76 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto good record during the DAY (34-23, +1.58 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Oakland bad during the DAY (11-46, -28.98 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against AL East/Central (36-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against LH starters (25-15 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(969) BOSTON (72-67) at (970) TAMPA BAY (84-55)
Trend: Boston more OVER on the ROAD (40-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay more OVER at HOME (43-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (46-24, +7.78 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: INTERESTING HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(971) DETROIT (63-75) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (69-69)
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (38-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit beat NYY a week ago with RHP Matt Manning starting
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (42-47, -11.13 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(973) CHICAGO-AL (53-86) at (974) KANSAS CITY (44-96)
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (33-49-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago bad at NIGHT (29-54, -23.84 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Kansas City not great as ML favorite (6-12, -9.45 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(975) HOUSTON (79-61) at (976) TEXAS (76-62)
Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (44-27, +13.36 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston leads season series (8-4 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Texas more OVER a couple of ways (40-27 O/U at HOME, 44-37 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good at HOME (43-28, +3.56 units)
System Match: TEXAS
(977) BALTIMORE (87-51) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-75)
Trend: Baltimore dominant against AL West/Central (38-18, +16.54 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore more OVER on the ROAD (38-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Baltimore good against LH starters (32-16, +13.92 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: LAA trending OVER against AL teams (50-37 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(979) SEATTLE (77-61) at (980) CINCINNATI (73-68)
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER against NL teams (18-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Seattle good with RHP starter Logan Gilbert (9-2 record in L11)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER against RH starters (45-55 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (47-37, +17.50 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (24-13, +14.29 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Mon 9/4-Wed 9/6
Trend: Boston has lost 15 of its last 16 (6.25%, -14.03 units) games at Tampa Bay
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -87.7%
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Friday 9/8)