The NBA season is a long and arduous journey. Injuries can obviously derail a season, and teams don’t find their stride until late in the year. Those ebbs and flows lead to opportunities in the futures market. Dallas is the perfect example.
At the beginning of February, the Mavericks were 26-23 and 18-1 to win the NBA Finals. They ended the season on a 24-9 SU and ATS run over the last 33 games. Dallas was +700 by the time the postseason began, and found themselves in the NBA Finals. The team ended up losing, but a bettor with that 18-1 ticket in pocket was in position to make money when the Finals began.
That type of run is generally why I like to wait to add championship or conference futures to my portfolio until the season begins. The market reacts to injuries and losing streaks. It is also slow to react to new data. For example, I added Minnesota to win the Western Conference at 30-1 at the end of October last year.
Having said that, it does not mean there is no point in adding championship futures before the season begins. Teams – like Boston – can certainly go wire-to-wire throughout a season and never see a playable dip in their odds. It also benefits a bettor to buy on a team it believes to be undervalued before the season begins. If they are right, the value of that ticket will only grow as the season goes along.
So, as we do every season in the NBA Guide, here are my three favorite championship futures to add before the season begins.
Minnesota Timberwolves (12-1)
Karl-Anthony Towns is now on the Knicks, but the Timberwolves are not worse today than they were with him. Naz Reid is a perfect replacement for Towns and the numbers bear that out. With Towns as the power forward next to Rudy Gobert, Minnesota outscored opponents by 9.2 points every 100 possessions. Its net rating with Reid in that spot was +8.4. And Reid is just as effective from distance as Towns.
The additions of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo give the Timberwolves some much-needed depth Randle can play the four, with Reid at the five, which gives this team some unique lineup versatility. Oh, and they still have the best two-way player in the league in Anthony Edwards and one of the best wing defenders in Jaden McDaniels.
The Northwest division is also a joke at the bottom and the Nuggets could take a step back this season. It is setting up for a strong season once again for Minnesota.
Milwaukee Bucks (14-1)
Last season did not go well for the Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard pairing. However, this price is not the price bettors were getting when that trade was made. Milwaukee was as short at +400 to win the Finals when the season began last year. It didn’t hit 14-1 until the first round, when Antetokounmpo was lost to injury. Now, we’re getting that price with the Bucks before the season begins.
There were some positives in a hectic campaign for Milwaukee last season. With Lillard and Antetokounmpo on the floor, the Bucks outscored opponents by 10.2 points per 100 possessions and ranked in the 96th percentile in offensive efficiency (124.1). The team also showed some improvements on defense after the All-Star break.
There are some injury concerns once again. Khris Middleton is not healthy to start camp and offseason addition – and expected starting shooting guard – Gary Trent Jr. suffered an elbow injury in the first preseason game. But, this team overall should be better in the second season of this experiment, and we are buying low.
Phoenix Suns (30-1)
Phoenix was included in this article last season, but the Suns disappointed. However, after seeing the offseason this team had, I am ready to be hurt once again.
It cannot be overstated how much better Phoenix will be with the addition of Mike Budenholzer as head coach. By all accounts, the Suns are going to utilize the 3-point line more than they did last season. That is evidenced by their first preseason game in which they attempted 39 3-point shots. Phoenix ranked 25th in 3-point attempts per game last season (32.6) despite ranking fifth in accuracy (38.2%). This team is already great on offense, but could be even better with a more analytical approach.
The Suns did a great job in adding what they could in the offseason. The big prize was Tyus Jones, who will run the point for Phoenix. Jones has ranked in the 89th percentile or higher in his last three seasons in assist-to-usage rate. He’s ranked in the 84th percentile or better in overall assist rate. He fills a massive hole for the Suns. Backup center is also much stronger with the addition of Mason Plumlee. Phoenix should be a dominant regular season team under Bud, and this number should shrink as the season goes along.
