A run to the NBA Finals was not enough for the Mavericks. After losing to the Celtics in five games, the Dallas front office went into the offseason with the objective of improving. Klay Thompson was the big fish landed, but the team also added to its depth with the signings of Spencer Dinwiddie and Naji Marshall among others. The core of this Western Conference champion remains, and this team is primed to make another run at a title this season.
The addition of Thompson is an incredible fit for this team. Part of the reason why the Mavericks fell short was the lack of consistent shooting on the floor outside of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. were largely ignored by Boston on defense, and it caused some real issues with Dallas’ offense. Now, Thompson replaces Jones in those situations. The four-time champion is a career 41.7% shooter who hit 38.7% of his 3-point attempts last season. He shot 38.1% on catch-and-shoot attempts. Next to Doncic and Irving, Thompson should have plenty of opportunities.
Having said that, this team does have some questions. The primary issue could be the defense. Yes, the Mavericks were one of the best defensive teams down the stretch last season, but Jones was a big part of that as a primary defender. He is now in Los Angeles. Neither Doncic or Irving are good defenders, and Thompson is no longer the defender he once was. Washington is a fine defender, but he will have a lot on his plate on that end of the floor considering the make up of this roster. Do not forget that Josh Green is gone as well, so Jason Kidd does not have the same plus-defender to bring off the bench any more. Rim protection should be solid with the tandem of Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford back at center.
The bench seems fine on paper, but there is not much scoring punch. Dinwiddie averaged just 10.5 points in 76 games between his time with the Nets and Lakers last season. Dante Exum figured to play a big role once again, but he is dealing with a serious wrist injury. Quentin Grimes could give Dallas some good minutes in the backcourt. Kidd will stagger both Irving and Doncic so the Mavericks do not play large stretches without one of their stars, but it is hard to get excited about the reserve unit, especially at guard.
Mavericks Win Total Prediction
Dallas could enter the season as one of the more overvalued teams in the NBA. It finished the regular season 24-9 SU and ATS in its last 33 games, and it made a run to the NBA Finals. The team also added a big name in the offseason in Thompson. As a result, the market expectations are high. The Mavericks have the fourth-highest win total in the Western Conference and they are tied with the Nuggets for second in odds to win the conference. There are no massive schedule concerns – they only have 13 back-to-backs and a -1 net rest advantage – but the rating that this team carries is a touch too high by my measure.
Lean: Under 49.5 Wins (+100)
