Denver’s title defense ended earlier than most thought it would: in the Western Conference semifinals. Now a year removed from a championship, the Nuggets have a different look, and that could be the difference between them and the other elite teams in the West.
The biggest change for Denver comes in the backcourt. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is now in Orlando. Christian Braun is his presumed successor at shooting guard, but Julian Strawther could steal the spot in camp. Regardless of who wins the job, he will have big shoes to fill.
With Caldwell-Pope at the two guard, Denver had a +10.5 net rating. He was their primary perimeter defender and a lethal shooter who knocked down 39.7% of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. Braun shot 37.7% on such attempts, but he only averaged 1.5 per game. Strawther shot 29.8%.
Whomever wins the job will need to replicate those shooting numbers. One must also assume that Denver’s defense declines with a primary defender like Caldwell-Pope on the move.
Caldwell-Pope’s departure also means the Nuggets’ depth takes another hit. He is the second key piece lost from the championship team from 2023 and one of the Nuggets’ biggest problems could be its bench.
In the minutes without Nikola Jokic on the floor last season, Denver had a -11.1 net rating and averaged only 105.6 points per 100 possessions. Where does the production come from when Jokic is on the bench?
Russell Westbrook was brought in to come off the bench. While he performed better than most would give him credit for last season – he averaged 11.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists and the Clippers were +1.9 in his time on the floor – he is still not the solution to this problem for the Nuggets.
As it stands, Denver’s primary bench pieces are Westbrook, Strawther, Peyton Watson and Dario Saric. Watson showed some real growth last season. He played 80 games and averaged 6.7 points, 3,2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. His per 36 line – 12.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks – was that of an effective role player. The Nuggets are really banking on his and Strawther’s development in order to solidify this bench.
Regardless, Denver still has Jokic and the newly extended Jamal Murray, along with Aaron Gordon.
With those three on the floor last season, the Nuggets outscored opponents by 13.5 points every 100 possessions. They ranked in the 99th percentile in offensive rating (126.9). Filter out the Caldwell-Pope minutes and this trio was +15.8 per 100 possessions.
This will still be one of the best teams in the Western Conference, as long as those three remain healthy. Specifically, if Jokic remains healthy. With that in mind, that is also what makes this team vulnerable.
Denver looks top-heavy on paper. There is a reality in which Braun thrives in his new starting role, and young pieces like Watson and Strawther continue to positively develop. But, there is also a reality in which they don’t.
Nuggets Win Total Prediction
Denver has increased its win total every season since the 2019-2020 campaign. Last year, the team made a concerted effort to push for a top seed, and it ended up with a 21-6 run over the final 27 games. But, many in Denver believe that led to the early exit in the postseason. With a thinner team and much tougher conference around them, the Nuggets should see a small decline in their regular season success.
Bet: Under 51.5 Wins (-115)
