The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Friday, April 26th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 26
NBA Best Bets Today – April 26
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers – 5:30 pm ET
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns – 10:30 pm ET
I don’t see any spreads I love tonight, so I’m taking a shot on a moneyline parlay. And I’m going with two home teams to win Game 3s, as I like the Pacers to take a 2-1 lead over the Bucks and the Suns to cut the series deficit to one game against the Timberwolves.
With Indiana, it’s just hard to overlook the way the team played in Game 2. And it really started with the Pacers figuring things out towards the end of Game 1. The Bucks are simply committing too much to slowing Tyrese Haliburton down, which is letting Pascal Siakam feast on one-on-one coverage. And the reality is that changing that up would be a risky proposition for Milwaukee.
If the Bucks decide to roll over help in Siakam’s direction, that would allow Haliburton to get back to running the most effective pick-and-rolls in the NBA. And let’s not forget, Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the league’s best defenders, isn’t out there to blow any of this up. He’s also not there to take pressure off Damian Lillard offensively. And Indiana is pretty much letting Lillard do his damage while committing to staying home on everybody else. That should work moving forward, especially with the Pacers playing this game at home. The atmosphere in Game 3 should be electric.
As for the Suns, I understand why people might be hesitant to back Phoenix after the way the first two games went. However, if you look at the box scores from Games 1 and 2, you’ll see that the Timberwolves are getting a lot of help from guys like Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. And while both of them are fantastic, it’s usually the stars that need to step up on the road. Sure, Anthony Edwards is a threat to go off in these next two games. But will Karl-Anthony Towns do the same? He has been quiet this series and seemingly can’t defend without picking up fouls.
Overall, I question whether or not Minnesota’s offense will travel. And while the defense likely will, it’s only a matter of time before the Suns start hitting some shots. And it does seem like Grayson Allen could be out there in Game 3. He was getting shots up at practice and said he is feeling better than expected. And if Allen can avoid twisting the ankle yet again, that should open things up for Phoenix’s offense. It’s easy to forget that the Suns were up when Allen went down in Game 2. He’s a crucial player for this Phoenix team, which is why he got a big contract extension at the end of the regular season.
Bet: Pacers ML/Suns ML (+115 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 26
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks – 8:00 pm ET
Kawhi Leonard looked horrible in Game 2, scoring 15 points on 7 for 17 shooting from the floor and 0 for 5 shooting from 3. But Leonard played 35 minutes in that game. And if he can hit that number again, I’d side with him scoring at least 23 points any day of the week. It just shouldn’t surprise anybody that Leonard was rusty in his first game back, but he has now had time to get himself acclimated. And the Clippers need him to rise to the occasion in a big road Game 3. So, I’m playing Leonard to score 23 or more tonight, which is something he did regularly throughout the year. In fact, he averaged 23.2 points per game during the regular season. And I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Leonard goes for 30 here. He’s due for a good shooting game after that nightmare in Game 2.
Bet: Leonard Over 22.5 Points (+104) & Leonard Alt Points 30+ (+500 – 0.25 units)
2023-24 Record: 342-361-3 (0.70 units)
