The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Thursday, April 25th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 25
NBA Best Bets Today – April 25
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
It’s hard to put into words how bad Orlando has been offensively in this series. The Magic have an offensive rating of 88.5 through two games and they are just 17 for 72 from 3. That’s a 23.6% shooting percentage from 3. Of course, 3-point shooting was a concern for Orlando heading into the postseason. But Orlando shot 35.2% from deep during the year. So, while it was bad all season, it wasn’t this bad. With that in mind, it feels like the Magic can only go up from here. And they should find their footing at home.
During the regular season, the Magic had a net rating of +7.8 at home. But they had a -3.5 net rating on the road. So, this is a completely different team when playing in Orlando, and the Magic also had an offensive rating of 115.5 at home. That’s a league-average mark if extrapolated over the course of an entire season, and it’s plenty good enough when you consider that Orlando is the third-ranked team in the league when it comes to adjusted defensive rating.
With all of that in mind, look for Orlando to break out of this funk and find a way to get this series to 2-1. On top of everything I mentioned about the home/away numbers, there’s also the classic saying that “role players play better at home” in the postseason. And while it’s a really easy thing to slap on any game, I do believe it to be true. And if some of these Magic players start making some shots, life will only get easier on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
It’s also hard to overlook that Orlando is 19-7 against the spread as a home favorite this season. The Magic have won those games by an average of 11.7 points per game. And I’m not even taking Orlando to cover. I’m just playing the Magic to win outright.
Bet: Magic ML (-130 – 2 units)
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
This first two games in this series went Under the total, but this number still feels very low. These teams actually combined to score 217 in Game 1, so they would have gone Over this number. But the total in Game 1 was up at 227, and it dropped to 224 in Game 2. I understand that this has been a series in which both team have been guarding. But the Game 1 total is based on an entire season of data. So, it seems a little crazy that we’ve come down 10 points because of two games. With that in mind, I’m willing to go Over this number tonight. As JVT would say, this is a “bet on principle.”
These teams also happened to average 229.0 points per game in the two games they played in Los Angeles during the regular season. The second of those two games came well after the NBA adjusted its officiating and that game saw the two scoring 238 points.
Bet: Over 216.5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – April 25
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 pm ET
This has been an extremely disappointing season for Tobias Harris. However, the Sixers have no choice but to continue to play him nearly 40 minutes per night. And that gives him scoring upside. For as bad as Harris has been this year, he’s still coming off a regular season in which he averaged 17.2 points per game. With that in mind, it’s wild to have the opportunity to play his NBA player prop totals at numbers this low.
Harris also strongly prefers playing at home. This season, he had 50.6%/38.1%/90.7% shooting splits at home, compared to 47.0%/32.6%/84.9% on the road. He should be a lot more comfortable in this building. That said, I’m leaning on Harris to have at least 13 points, and I’m also sprinkling him to have at least 15. Harris has gotten some good looks in this series. He just has to start burying some of them. I also think he’ll be more aggressive in hunting his shot in Philadelphia.
Bet: Harris Over 12.5 Points (-108 – 1.5 units) & Harris Alt Points 15+ (+165 – 0.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 339-359-3 (-3.18 units)
