The Paul George era in Los Angeles is over. As is the short-lived time with Russell Westbrook. Kawhi Leonard remains with the Clippers, but his health is in question yet again after an offseason knee procedure. James Harden will have to carry Los Angeles this season as it tries to integrate new faces across the roster.
On paper, the Clippers’ biggest weakness is going to be its offense. In order to replace George’s production, the front office hit free agency and brought in quite a few pieces: Nic Batum, Mo Bamba, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr. Each of those players have clear strengths, but none can replicate the shot creation that George has. Where Los Angeles will go to create offense when Harden isn’t on the floor – and while Leonard is sidelined – is a mystery.
Shooting also figures to be an issue for the Clippers. Jones is a career 31.6% shooter. Dunn has hit just 32.3% of his career attempts from deep. Both Dunn and Jones started Los Angeles’ preseason opener and the spacing was an issue. Norman Powell, Terance Mann and Batum are off-ball shooting threats, but some of the lineups Ty Lue rolls out there could be very clunky on offense.
There is some upside with this team on offense, but it is dependent on some wild cards. Porter has some upside as a scoring threat. Porter averaged 19.2 points in the 2022-2023 season on 44.2% shooting. However, issues off the court have derailed his career. Can he stay on the court? Bones Hyland has some upside on offense as well, but his lackadaisical play on defense could keep him from getting regular minutes.
One thing to monitor with this team’s offense is the pace with which it plays. This group will likely be without Leonard to start the season and George is gone. Jones is a great athlete and lob threat, and Porter is a good transition player. This team could pick up the pace in order to supplement its offense. That would be a stark contrast from a team which finished 20th in pace last season.
The positive side of this roster for Los Angeles will be its defense. Batum, Dunn and Jones are all positive defenders with the ability to switch matchups. Jones was brilliant for Dallas last season. He improved the Mavericks’ defensive rating by 3.6 points every 100 possessions on the floor. When Leonard is healthy, he and Jones give the Clippers two very strong wing defenders that will be able to take on most offensive threats. It would not be shocking if Los Angeles ended up being a top-10 defense in the league.
Clippers Win Total Prediction
What the Clippers can achieve this season all depends on what they get out of Leonard. The team is saying all of the right things – including that Leonard will be available to start the season – but the team has lied about these things in the past. The schedule has some incredible challenges as well. The Clippers have 16 back-to-backs – a league-high – and do not have an edge when it comes to rest advantages. If Leonard surprises most and is available for a majority of games, this team could surpass its win total, but it would be a fool’s errand to expect that.
Lean: Under 39.5 Wins (-110)
UPDATE: Kawhi Leonard (knee) is out indefinitely!
