Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports
NBA Best Bets
Record: 104-95-3 | Units: +2.25 | ROI: 1.0%
Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks (-9.5, 215)
The wheels have certainly fallen off for Charlotte. In its last 14 games the team is 3-11 SU/5-8-1 ATS with the third-worst non-garbage time net rating in the league (102.2). The Hornets certainly deserve a market downgrade for their recent play, but it would seem the market has swung too far in one direction. Charlotte is bad, but it is not this far removed from its opponent today.
Atlanta’s roster has been ravaged by injuries. As a result it is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games. Their last six opponents have averaged 120.8 points per 100 possessions. This team just isn’t in a spot where it should be laying this number to any opponent, even Charlotte. Today isn’t the best situation for the Hawks either, as they return home from a five-game trip along the west coast after just one day of rest.
To give the Hornets some credit as well, over this 14-game span in which they have struggled they have still played very well on the defensive end. Charlotte is 10th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency over that span (113.0). The team is forcing turnovers (15.2%) and limiting opponent free throw opportunities.
Best Bet: Hornets (+8.5) – Playable to (+7.5)
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets (-10, 226.5)
Houston has been one of the best teams in the league since the beginning of March. It is 9-1 SU and ATS and has covered by an average of 9.4 points per game. The Rockets’ turnaround has been ignited by an offense that has suddenly erupted for 121.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time.
One of the driving factors in this offensive explosion is Houston’s increase in pace and tempo. Its transition frequency both overall and off live rebounds has increased in March. Prior to the All-Star break the team averaged 99.13 possessions per game, but since then it is fourth in pace at 101.57 possessions per contest. These reasons are why the Rockets are 6-2 to the over in their last eight games. They should get another opportunity to continue this trend tonight.
Utah has been a very poor team since the trade deadline. Their offense averages 113.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and they turn the ball over on 14.8% of their possessions. Those turnovers should lead to fastbreak opportunities for the Rockets who love to run off those. The Jazz also give up 123.4 points per 100 possessions with this group while also averaging 100.5 possessions per game.
There is a danger in asking that offense for Utah to keep up its end of the bargain, so instead I’ll bank on Houston to have a decent offensive evening.
Best Bet: Rockets TT OV 119.5 (-120) – Playable to (-125)
NBA Best Bets
Hornets (+8.5)
Rockets TT OV 119.5 (-120)
