One of the biggest storylines in NBA betting last season was the sudden change in officiating. Around the start of the 2024 calendar year officials started swallowing their whistles. Players were not getting to the free throw line as often and scoring was down.
The average free throw rate – made free throws per 100 field goal attempts – last season was 19.2, according to Cleaning The Glass. From the beginning of January to the end of the regular season it was just 18.5. That led to a rash of unders and bettors had to adjust. One of the biggest questions heading into this season was how would games be called?
Well, through two days it seems we’re back to the old ways.
Overs are 9-3 through the first two days of the regular season. The average free throw rate is 23.9 as of Thursday. This is obviously a small sample size, but it is worth making a note of it. If the whistles are loud once again, it’s an early edge to be aware of.
With that, let’s dive into the short card tonight. Remember, you can track this column each day in this doc.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday, October 24th
Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
Sacramento unveils their new lineup with DeMar DeRozan tonight. On the surface it would seem this offense for the Kings has an extremely high ceiling, but I have my doubts. DeRozan sharing the floor with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis could create a very congested offense. None of those three are 3-point shooting threats that force defenses to stay home. Minnesota should be capable of magnifying that problem with its defense and size tonight.
On the other end, the Timberwolves should have a better showing. They turned it over on 17.0% of their possessions and allowed the Lakers to score 19 points on those extra possessions. Minnesota should be much more comfortable against a subpar defensive team like Sacramento which finished 18th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency last season.
This is really a play against the Kings. I believe them to be somewhat overvalued heading into the season. I also believe this is an extremely poor matchup for them. So, give me the Timberwolves to win on the road this evening.
Best Bet: Timberwolves (PK)
