There were 11 games in the NBA last night, but one performance stood out among the rest.
Paolo Banchero dropped 50 points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists in a 119-115 win over the Indiana Pacers. It is the second time in four games this season that Banchero scored over 30 points. It brings his season averages to 28.5 points, 9.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game on 48.0% shooting.
The strong start has moved Banchero up the odds board for Most Improved Player. He is now in a three-way tie for the award at DraftKings with Jalen Williams and Cade Cunningham. Seeing as I got about four or five messages about him winning the award, that checks out.
I would caution anyone looking to jump on the short price now. Sandwiched between two dominant performances are two games against the Nets and Grizzlies in which Banchero scored a combined 31 points on 8-of-25 shooting (32.0%). It was a great night, but I don’t know if I believe Banchero deserves to be favored for Most Improved.
We move on to the best bets for a short Thursday card. Remember, you can track the column plays and results here.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, October 29th
*Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5, 226.5)
There is not much on the NBA card tonight, but this spot makes the most sense to play. It has been profitable to back teams in “playoff revenge” situations and Minnesota falls into that category. The Timberwolves also have the rest advantage, having not played since Saturday. The Mavericks on the second leg of a back-to-back, and this is the third game in four nights for them.
Through three games both teams have strong statistical profiles, but Dallas has been somewhat inefficient on offense. Last night it managed just 1.10 points per possessions against Utah, and against Phoenix it had a 108.5 offensive rating. The Timberwolves can still defend at an extremely high level and their size with Julius Randle now in the mix should be able to overwhelm a smaller opponent.
Speaking of Randle, the forward seems to be thriving in Minnesota’s isolation-heavy offense. He is averaging 24.3 points and 7.7 rebounds on 62.8% shooting from the floor in three games. Anthony Edwards is doing the same, as he is averaging 27.7 points and 6.3 rebounds on 42.0% shooting. With those two on the floor the Timberwolves have a +7.1 net rating. They should be able to pick their matchups with success against the Mavericks now that they have three average defenders on the floor at once in Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson.
Those who are looking to play this could hold out until closer to tip-off. We usually see some buyback around the start of a contest, and that could lead to a cheaper line, but as long as this is better than -6 I believe it is worth playing.
Best Bet: Timberwolves (-5)
