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NBA Best Bets
Record: 119-117-3 | Units: -7.10
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (-4, 212.5)
Kawhi Leonard is expected to play tonight despite the questionable status he carries. For the first time it looks like Los Angeles is the healthier team. Not only is Tim Hardaway – the Mavericks’ third-leading scorer from the regular season and primary bench piece – out tonight, but Daniel Gafford is questionable. The Clippers could be in a much better position with their roster once play resumes in this series.
Through two games Los Angeles also has some key statistical advantages. It has outrebounded Dallas, specifically on the offensive end where the Clippers have grabbed 30.1% of their missed shot attempts. They also come into this road game with a +4.3 net rating for the series despite a tie.
Los Angeles has to figure out how to handle the small-ball lineups that the Mavericks are relying on, but their gameplan of doubling Luka Doncic had some success on Tuesday night. Leonard should be more effective with a game under his belt as well. I’ll play the zig-zag here and expect the Clippers to push the Mavericks and potentially take a series lead.
Best Bet: Clippers (+4.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 209.5)
The market is all in on Phoenix here, and that is not a surprise given the situation. The Suns are down two games and returning home. Not only are they 4.5-point favorites for the game, but they are -4 in the first half at some spots as well. Phoenix could very well bounce back now that it is back home, but the mismatches that were apparent in Minnesota remain.
Center is the biggest issue for the Suns as we head into this contest. Through two games Phoenix has a -19.6 net rating when Drew Eubanks is on the floor. Its small-ball lineups with Kevin Durant at center have a -39.4 net rating, according to Cleaning The Glass. There is no real option at the five other than Jusuf Nurkic, and the Timberwolves have feasted whenever Frank Vogel goes to his bench.
Phoenix’s starting lineup does have a +1.7 net rating, but that is due to its defense. Those five only average 0.98 points per possession, and one could argue that defensive efficiency mark is more about Minnesota’s play. The Suns are getting run off the 3-point line (29.9% of attempts from deep) and they are shooting just 34.8% on those shots. Playing back at home could fix some of those issues, but not all of them.
But, as previously mentioned, the market is on Phoenix back at home. Despite the injury concern with Grayson Allen, this number is now 4.5 and there are even some shops at -5 as of this morning and it is juiced to the favorite. That is just a bridge too far for me. The Timberwolves are the second-best team in the Western Conference and the best defensive team. Despite foul trouble from Karl-Anthony Towns on Tuesday they still won comfortably over the Suns. At the juiced -5 on the board I am in.
Best Bet: Timberwolves (+5, -105)
Remaining Games
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-3.5, 223.5)
Traditional bettors who love to follow trends are going to be conflicted for this contest. Zig-zag bettors will gravitate toward Milwaukee, which lost and failed to cover back on Tuesday. However, others like to bet teams returning home in a series, regardless of their standing in the first two games of the series. The market has moved in Indiana’s direction, but that is mostly due to the questionable status of Khris Middleton.
Middleton’s status aside, the Bucks will need to fix their defensive issues from Tuesday evening. The Pacers averaged 1.311 points per play in halfcourt settings, 1.438 points per play in transition off live rebounds and shot 15-of-33 from deep. It was a stark contrast from Game 1 which Milwaukee played very well defensively.
Damian Lillard also needs to cut the Jekyll and Hyde routine. Lillard has dominated the first half of both games. He is averaging 30.5 points and 58.1% shooting from the floor in the first halves of this series. He’s averaging 4.0 points on 21.4% shooting in the second halves.
Where this number ultimately closes comes down to Middleton’s status. If he does not play this should close about where it is now, give or take a half-point. If he does play, we can expect this number dips to about 4.5 but does not get close to the opening number. The market likes Indiana, regardless of Middleton playing or not.
