NBA Best Bets for Friday, May 10th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Best Bets
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-6, 222.5)
Jalen Brunson is questionable to play, but after he returned in the second half on Wednesday and dropped 14 points on 5-of-10 shooting from the floor in the fourth quarter it is likely he is on the floor tonight. Once he is officially announced as active we might get a half-point bump in favor of the Knicks, but does this team have enough even with Brunson on the floor?
OG Anunoby is the latest loss for New York, and the team was already running with a seven-man rotation. The lack of depth and size along the wing has manifested itself in poor defensive play for the Knicks. They have allowed 120.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time for the postseason, and the Pacers have a 128.6 offensive rating for the series. It’s unlikely that defense improves with the loss of Anunoby, but Indiana has yet to figure out its own defensive issues.
It would seem the betting market has settled at 7.5 with some resistance on that number. Indiana is back home and down two games; a situation the market gravitates toward. That situation – along with Anunoby’s absence – has caused quite the swing from the first game of this series when the Knicks were -6 at close.
Perhaps the short-handed nature of this roster holds New York back. But, it’s hard to lay that number considering where the market was when the series started and the level of defense the favorite plays.
Best Bet: Knicks (+7.5)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5, 205)
When the line opened for this contest after Game 2 on Monday the market immediately shot up to -4.5 and we reached -5 in the middle of the week. This line has slowly made its way back to the opening number, and it isn’t entirely surprising given the market’s penchant for backing teams in 2-0 series holes. This one is slightly different, as Denver must go on the road, but the market is still following its usual patterns here. As someone who is invested the way he is in Minnesota, I believe the recent market movement to be incorrect.
The Timberwolves are a matchup nightmare for the Nuggets, and they have exploited those issues in more way than one. Jamal Murray is being put into every pick-and-roll defensively when he is on the floor. On the other end, Minnesota is using their wing size to smother Murray. They are pressing Denver ball-handlers – Nikola Jokic included – every step of the way when they bring the ball up. The degree to which this has worked – Denver has a 98.9 offensive rating for the series – likely regresses some, but the final result should not.
The current line of -3.5 would indicate these teams are near equals to one another on neutral floor, but if it dips under that line that would be a buypoint on Minnesota.
Record: 122-126-3 | Units: -13.7
