NBA Best Bets for Thursday, May 16th
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NBA Best Bets
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3, 204.5)
After losing three straight in this series Minnesota is looking for answers. Their defensive strategy against Nikola Jokic is clearly not working. In the three wins Jokic averaged 33.0 points, 9.3 rebounds and 9.3 assists on 60.6% shooting from the floor. There is not much any team can do to stop the best player in the world, but at the very least you could see the Timberwolves attempt to get the ball out of Jokic’s hands.
Minnesota has been resistant to changing their scheme of putting a power forward on Jokic and Rudy Gobert on Aaron Gordon to serve as a help defender. That likely doesn’t change much tonight, but what we could see is the frequency of double-teams Jokic sees. The Timberwolves have not done it at all throughout this series, but they have to try something. With this being a home game, Minnesota could ask the rest of Denver’s role players to beat them.
One of those role players could be Jamal Murray. Murray has been quiet in this series. He’s averaged just 16.2 points per game, and he has surpassed 20 points just once. The betting market has adjusted as a result, and his point total prop of 19.5 for tonight is the lowest of the series. Fewer opportunities for Jokic should mean more for Murray, and at a low point total prop it’s worth looking at him to go over his number.
Best Bet: Jamal Murray OV 19.5 (-110)
2023-2024 Record: 122-129-3 | Units: -16.68
