NBA Best Bets for Thursday, May 30th
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NBA Best Bets
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-4, 210)
It’s not entirely surprising to see the betting market support Minnesota today. The Timberwolves are back at home after a win, and the market has consistently supported them throughout this series despite the results.
Some might chalk up Minnesota’s win to a fluky shooting performance from Karl-Anthony Towns, but the Timberwolves did adjust their defensive strategy on Tuesday.
Minnesota decided to pack the paint on Tuesday night. Rudy Gobert dropped on over 80% of pick-and-rolls run by Luka Doncic, and the Timberwolves helped off lesser shooters like Derrick Jones Jr. They also switched defensive assignments along the perimeter, putting Anthony Edwards on Doncic and Jaden McDaniels on Kyrie Irving.
The results were very positive for Minnesota’s defense.
Dallas averaged just 0.857 points per possession in halfcourt settings after averaging 1.079 per possession in the first three games of the series. The Mavericks were still very efficient on shots at the rim (12-of-15) but on a much lower frequency of attempts. As a result, they took more 3-point attempts (40) on which they shot just 35.0%. Doncic and Irving also combined to go 13-of-39 (33.3%) from the floor with their new defenders.
Obviously the absence of Dereck Lively is important when evaluating the result, but the Timberwolves made a tangible change to their defensive scheme on Tuesday. Bettors should expect a similar strategy once more tonight.
Even with Lively’s potential return, I believe these defensive changes are enough to get Minnesota one more win in this series at least. Edwards and McDaniels work best for their new defensive assignments. The Timberwolves are also picking the better of the two poisons. It’s better to go down like the Thunder did – letting lesser shooters take shots – as opposed to being destroyed by lobs in the paint.
Given my position on Minnesota the side won’t be an actual bet for me, but I do believe that is the way to go if a bettor were jumping in tonight.
Lean: Timberwolves (-4.5)
2023-2024 Record: 122-135-3 (-22.73u)
