NBA Best Bets for Thursday, May 9th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Best Bets
Record: 122-125-3 | Units: -12.6
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-13, 211.5)
The betting market was all over Boston on Tuesday and it was right to do so. The Celtics improved to 5-1 SU and ATS in this postseason, and while they are not covering as impressively as the Timberwolves, they still own a own a +5.3 spread differential. This suggests – as crazy as this might sound – that the market is still undervaluing Boston. Outside betting value, the basketball match up is overwhelmingly in the Celtics’ favor. Cleveland really stands no chance in this series if it is going to play this way, and there has been no indication things will change. Specifically, with the role players around Donovan Mitchell.
Darius Garland has been non-existent in the playoffs. He is averaging 14.8 points, 5.4 assists and 3.8 rebounds in eight games on 44.2% shooting, but the underlying numbers paint an ugly picture. Garland has the worst plus/minus among Cavaliers players for the postseason (-62) by a wide margin. When he is on the floor Cleveland has a -11.9 net rating.
Caris LeVert helped save the Cavalier’s bacon in Game 7 against the Magic, but he is averaging just 7.0 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the floor. He is tied with Evan Mobley for second-worst plus/minus (-35) and Cleveland is -11.2 per 100 possessions with him on the floor. The list could go on, but the point is that Mitchell is on his own here. In Game 1 he scored 33 points on 12-of-25 shooting. The rest of the team combined for 62 points on 25-of-65 shooting (38.5%) from the floor.
All of this is to say that the play here will be Boston. Jarrett Allen could return tonight, but recent reports do not paint a positive picture for how effective Allen will be. I also doubt Allen – a rim protecting center – will have much impact against a team that will play five-out at times and take about 40% of their attempts from beyond the arc. We have adjusted from the opening line of this series to today, but Boston is rolling and that adjustment does not seem to be enough.
Best Bet: Celtics (-13.5)
Remaining Games
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-4, 219.5)
Much like the contest between Boston and Cleveland, we have seen the market adjust its rating of Oklahoma City. Bettors now have to gauge whether or not that adjustment is enough, or too much.
The line for Game 1 in this series opened Thunder -2.5 but moved heavily in Oklahoma City’s direction. By the time tip-off arrived the home team Thunder were 4.5-point favorites in a game they eventually covered with ease. We’re starting to see some buyback on the line, but the fly in the ointment is the health of Luka Doncic.
In the postseason Doncic is averaging 28.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 9.3 assists, but he’s doing it on 39.5% shooting from the floor and 22.7% from deep. He was clearly hampered in the loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. The market could be adjusting its rating on the Thunder, but it could also be factoring in the clearly unhealthy Doncic.
Therein lies the issues with betting this contest. On one hand, I believe the Thunder to be undervalued – it is why I bet them to win the series – but on the other, there is a chance the market is over adjusting due to Doncic’s health. We know he is going to play, and if he just so happens to feel his bothersome knee get stronger bettors could be laying an inflated number accounting for something that just is not true.
