Welcome to your source of daily analysis of the NBA Playoffs! Here we will break down each game, discuss betting angles, give predictions and more. For more discussion make sure to check out our daily NBA betting podcast: Hardwood Handicappers.
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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-9, 215)
Game 2: Heat lead series 1-0
There are certain things in sports that are unquantifiable by data and statistics, and the inability of the Boston Celtics to play to their potential is one of those things. The other is Heat Culture.
Miami was incredible in the first game of this series, but their shooting performance is one that will be nearly impossible to replicate. The Heat hit a ridiculous 16-of-29 3-point attempts on Wednesday night, shot 64.3% on long mid-range attempts and went 6-of-10 on attempts when a defender was within two feet. Those are all figures that are likely to regress, and the market is in on that and the situation for Boston.
Teams that lose the first game of a series at home are now 21-1 SU/20-2 ATS in Game 2 the last 22 instances of this situation occurring. That would obviously include the Celtics tonight and it is why the market is higher today than it was on Wednesday. Bettors must now ask themselves if they’re willing to lay a higher number for the situation at hand.
The other angle to monitor here is obviously the total. Game 1 closed at about 213 at most shops, but went flying over with 239 points scored. However, that game was played somewhat slower with 96 total possessions. The ridiculous shooting for Miami was a driving force in getting that number over. Should the Heat experience some natural shooting regression while the pace remains the same we could see this game stay under a number which has been adjusted by three points from the first game.
Best Bet: UNDER 215.5