Fresh off of a 57-25 season the Oklahoma City Thunder were not happy with being eliminated in the conference semifinals. The Thunder front office responded by dominating the offseason with two massive acquisitions: Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Oklahoma City was one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA last season. It finished 28th in rebounding rate (48.4%) and 27th in offensive rebounding (23.7%). Hartenstein will alleviate those issues. In his two seasons as a Knick, Hartenstein finished in the 89th percentile or higher in offensive rebounding rate. He was in the 61st percentile in defensive rebounding.
Hartenstein also fits on the floor with Chet Holmgren, whose shooting – he shot 37.9% last season – will allow the Thunder’s spacing to remain intact. That also means Oklahoma City will have two 7-footers on the floor at once, which should also greatly improve their rebounding.
Caruso is an excellent defender that fits perfectly with a team that finished fourth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (112.0) last season. Luguentz Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are elite defenders in their own right. Now, Mark Daigneault can employ lineups with all three on the floor at once, giving the Thunder one of the best perimeter defenses in the NBA.
The addition of Caruso works so well because of his shooting, as well as his defense. The former Bulls guard shot 40.6% on 3.9 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season. Dort shot 39.9% on such attempts. Jalen Williams hit 43.4% of his catch-and-shoot shots from deep. Any combination of the three still work very well on offense around Gilgeous-Alexander.
Speaking of, that offense should be very good once again.
Oklahoma City was third in non-garbage time offensive rating last season (120.0). The team is balanced, but that offensive production begins with its young star.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in MVP voting last season. He was third in scoring (30.1) and finished in the 100th percentile at his position in points per 100 shot attempts (128.0). When he was on the floor for the Thunder, they outscored opponents by 11.3 points every 100 possessions. Oklahoma City should be near that mark in those minutes once again this season.
Over the last three seasons, the Thunder are 146-104-8 ATS (56.6%). They were the fourth-best cover team in the league last season at 52-39-1 ATS (57.1%) over both the regular season and postseason. This year, it might be hard for this team to cover at such a high rate with massive market expectations.
Thunder Win Total Prediction
Oklahoma City has the second-highest win total on the board at DraftKings (56.5), behind only the Boston Celtics. It has a -1 net rest advantage for the season, and the team is among 11 others with a league-high 16 back-to-backs. One also has to wonder if the same injury luck will carry over for a team which lost the second-fewest games to injury last season. Still, this is the best team in the Western Conference with a young core. Even with such a high win total and negative schedule factors, the expectation should be for this team to surpass its win total this season.
Bet: Over 56.5 Wins (-115)
