The first season with the trio of Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker was a failure. As a result, Frank Vogel paid the price and was fired after just one season at the helm. In his place is Mike Budenholzer, and in a league where player movement can shake up an entire league, his hiring might be the most impactful move of the offseason.
Budenholzer has promised to get Phoenix behind the 3-point line. The Suns are loaded with mid-range specialists, but all three are capable shooters. Last season, Phoenix ranked second in mid-range frequency (34.9%) and it led the league in long mid-range frequency (12.5%). Yes, they finished second in shooting percentage in both categories, but this is about the math game for the Suns. This is a team that shot 38.8% from 3-point range, 38.1% on non-corner attempts and 40.9% from the corners. If this team becomes a high-volume shooting team, then the ninth-best offense last season – 118.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time – can be even better.
In order to reach those heights, the team will need better availability from Beal. He played in just 53 games last season. But, when he was on the floor with Durant and Booker, the team was one of the best in the league. With that trio on the floor, the Suns averaged 123.3 points per 100 possessions and had a +7.5 net rating. Its defense was average – 115.8 defensive rating with those lineups ranked in the 49th percentile – but not abhorrent. Having said that, Beal has not played in more than 60 games since the 2018-2019 season. It seems like a longshot that he surpasses that 60-game mark at this point of his career.
The biggest personnel move came in the form of the team acquiring point guard Tyus Jones. Phoenix lacked a true point guard last season, and instead tried to make it work with either Booker or Beal at the top of the offense. Jones is an extremely strong facilitator that has ranked in the 93rd percentile or higher in assist-to-usage rate ratio in five of the last six seasons. Not only does he fit on the floor with Phoenix’s star trio, but he gives them a guard to lean on if Beal misses time.
Defensively, the Suns surprised by finishing 12th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (114.3) last season. It might not finish that high this season. Budenholzer will utilize the drop defense he played so frequently in Milwaukee at times, but it is unknown whether Nurkic will be able to handle the role Brook Lopez played so well under him.
Suns Win Total Prediction
Phoenix has an extremely high ceiling once again this season. The floor of this offense with players like Beal, Durant and Booker is higher than almost every team in the league. Under Budenholzer, they should take a more sound approach to their offense, with a stronger emphasis on 3-point shooting. The schedule does provide some challenges. The Suns have a -4 net rest advantage, they play 16 back-to-backs and they travel the ninth-most miles this season. But, that is not enough to keep me off this team. Phoenix won 49 games last season, and they are arguably better this season.
Bet: Suns Over 46.5 Wins (-130)
