Despite unprecedented success for the franchise over the last two seasons, the Kings were not happy. The Kings were eliminated in the Play-In Tournament last season, just a year after winning the most games since the 2004-2005 season. So, the franchise went out and acquired DeMar DeRozan from Chicago, in an effort to upgrade and pursue a championship.
On its face, the move to acquire DeRozan is an upgrade. In three seasons in Chicago, the veteran guard averaged 24.3 points, 5.2 assists and 4.5 rebounds and he shot 49.2% from the floor. He also improved the Bulls’ net rating when he was on the floor in each of the seasons he was with the team. However, his fit in Sacramento is puzzling.
The current projected starting lineup for the Kings is DeRozan with De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keon Ellis and Keegan Murray. There is not much shooting in this group. DeRozan is a career 29.6% shooter. Fox has shot 33.4% from deep for his career. Ellis shot 41.7% from deep on 2.9 attempts last season and 42.4% on catch-and-shoot attempts. That is a great percentage, but on a low volume. Whether he can sustain those numbers with an increased workload is not known.
Fox and DeRozan are both extremely effective shot creators and isolation scorers. Chicago averaged 1.1 points per possession when DeRozan isolated last season, and Sacramento put up 1.01 per possession with Fox. However, that will take a hit with defenses able to help off so many different options without the threat of giving up a look to a good shooter.
The bench looks somewhat different this season as well. It is still led by Malik Monk, but Chris Duarte and Davion Mitchell are gone. Jordan McLaughlin, Jalen McDaniels and Orlando Robinson are in to take their places. Kevin Huerter remains, as do Alex Len and Trey Lyles. The top eight has continuity, but after that the Kings will be fitting in new pieces.
There is a question as to how effective this team will be defensively as well. Sacramento was 18th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency last season (116.1). It was 25th in the same category the prior season. They did not add any one piece that would greatly improve the play on that end of the floor. It should be expected that this team is below average on defense once again this season.
Kings Win Total Prediction
Sacramento made a massive splash in the offseason when it acquired DeRozan, but it did not make itself better. The addition brought with it questions about the offense, and how it will work with DeRozan in the mix. Its biggest weakness – defense – is the same, at best. The Kings will also have to deal with some scheduling challenges. They have no net rest advantage on the season. Sacramento will also have to deal with 16 back-to-backs, the most a team has this season.
Lean: Under 46.5 Wins (-120)
