Victor Wembanyama.
In reality, that should be the whole preview for San Antonio. The Spurs’ French phenom was every bit as advertised in his rookie season. After he took over at center on Dec. 8 last year, Wembanyama went on to average 22.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.9 blocks per game on 47.6% shooting from the floor. He won Rookie of the Year and finished second behind Rudy Gobert for Defensive Player of the Year.
Wembanyama is the odds-on favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year this season, and he is just 20-1 to win MVP. The expectations for the second-year center are out of this world, and the expectations for his team are mirroring that.
San Antonio won just 22 games last season. It was the second-fewest in the Western Conference. As of early October, 36.5 was the consensus win total for the Spurs. The team did add in the offseason. The notable names are Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes, both of whom are expected to start. But, are those two additions worth 15 more wins for San Antonio?
Paul averaged a career-worst 9.2 points per game last season for Golden State. He ranked in the 44th percentile at his position in points per 100 shot attempts (109.6). Paul still finished in the 100th percentile in assist rate (34.3%), but he is nowhere near the efficient scorer he once was.
Barnes averaged the lowest point total of his career since 2015-2016 (12.2). He did shoot 38.7% from deep and should give the Spurs a steady shooting presence at the wing, but he was a massive negative for Sacramento last season (-6.4 efficiency differential). There is a reason he and Paul were available for San Antonio to acquire.
The depth remains largely intact from last season. Devin Vassell will miss at least the first five games of the regular season with injury, so the Spurs will have to figure out what to do at shooting guard early on. Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Julian Champagnie all fill out the usual roles. Rookie Stephon Castle is a good defender who could form some nasty defensive lineups with Wembanyama.
Still, it all comes back to Wembanyama. When he was on the floor last season, the Spurs allowed 112.8 points per 100 possessions. They were only outscored by 3.3 points per 100 possessions. If he gets an increase in minutes as expected, perhaps he can play well enough to push this team further than he did last season.
Spurs Win Total Prediction
It is really hard to realistically put so much on a second-year player and have it work out, but maybe Wembanyama is that special. His per 36 minutes projection this season has him averaging 26.1 points, 12.8 rebounds and 4.2 blocks per game. That stat line is good enough to win MVP, which many think he can. That would ultimately mean he can lead this team Over its win total and surpass market expectations. But, I can’t get there. The additions San Antonio made in the offseason do not equate to an improvement of 15 games for me.
Lean: Under 36.5 Wins (-105)
