Any conversation about the Jazz begins with the team’s youth. Ten players on this roster are 23 years of age or younger. There is plenty of solid veteran talent – such as Lauri Markkanen who signed an extension this summer – but the word out of Salt Lake City is that this season is about the kids.
If that is true, it makes projecting what this team will be this season somewhat difficult.
Utah only finished 17th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (115.4), but that was undoubtedly its strength. Much of that offense was generated by second-chance opportunities. The Jazz finished second in offensive rebounding rate (30.9%), first in putback points per 100 missed shot attempts (26.0) and third in putback points per 100 plays (121.9). Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Taylor Hendricks are all very good offensive rebounders who finished in the 75th percentile or higher at their position in the category. This should be a strength of Utah’s once again.
Areas of improvement for the Jazz this season will need to be turnovers and shooting. They turned the ball over on 15.6% of their offensive possessions; the highest rate in the league. That led to opponents adding 1.8 points per 100 possessions to their offensive rating in transition off steals. Utah also shot just 35.7% from beyond the arc and 34.3% on attempts above the break. It hit just 37.3% of wide-open attempts in the regular season.
Still, offense figures to be the stronger aspect of this team. The defense has a long way to go.
The Jazz allowed 120.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time last season. That was the most in the league. They only forced a turnover on 12.2% of their opponent’s offensive possessions. That was the second-lowest rate in the NBA last season. Opponents averaged 20.8 uncontested 3-point attempts per game. That was the third-most allowed by a team.
Kessler and Hendricks have shown flashes on the defensive end, with Kessler being the most effective statistically. When he was on the floor, Utah allowed 3.8 points fewer every 100 possessions and opponents’ shooting percentage at the rim dipped by 8.0%. Hendricks improved the team’s defensive rating as well. If Will Hardy really does buy into the youth movement and these two develop as expected, this team could crawl out of the basement on defense.
Jazz Win Total Prediction
According to Positive Residual’s strength of schedule metric, the Jazz have the seventh-easiest schedule in the NBA. They do have a negative net rest advantage on the season (-3) and they are among nine other teams with 15 back-to-backs; the second-highest amount a team will have this season. But, any analysis for this team’s win total comes back to the youth and the construction of this roster.
John Collins is on a one-year deal with a player option. Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson have two years remaining on their deals. Which – if any – of these players will be on this roster by the time the season ends? During media days the team constantly hit on the need to develop the young pieces on this team. By season’s end, this should be a young team learning to play together. That means a lot of growing pains. Hardy is a brilliant coach, but it is hard to invest in this team going Over its win total with that in mind.
Lean: Under 29.5 Wins (-115)
