Today’s Most Important NBA Betting Trends
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, MIAMI, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, INDIANA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, BOSTON, INDIANA, LA LAKERS
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-CHA, ATL-MIA, IND-POR, BKN-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets were on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SAS-CHA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 53-21 SU and 45-26-3 ATS (63.4%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game last season.
1/19: PORTLAND vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+5 vs IND)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* SAN ANTONIO was 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
1/19: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Charlotte
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 114-29 SU and 95-48 ATS (66.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DEN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 79-48 SU and 76-48-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at CHA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 188-207 SU and 170-223-2 ATS (43.3%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs PHX)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 203-197 SU, but 179-209-12 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs PHX)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 124-43 SU and 95-70-2 ATS (57.6%).
System Matches: PLAY CHARLOTTE (-4.5 vs. SAS), PLAY MIAMI (-6.5 vs. ATL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (138-159 ATS, 46.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-177 ATS, 52.4%) over the last three seasons
System Match: CONSIDER FADING CHARLOTTE (-4.5 vs SAS)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+2.1), 2. ORLANDO +5 (+1.9), 3. PORTLAND +5 (+1.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +7 (+4.2), 2. ORLANDO +5 (+0.6), 3. PHOENIX +1.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA -5 (+1.1), 2. MIAMI -6.5 (+0.7), 3. BOSTON -7 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-MIA OVER 227 (+4.0), 2. PHX-NOP OVER 237 (+0.4), 3. PHI-ORL OVER 223 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-POR UNDER 238.5 (-2.4), 2. DEN-BOS UNDER 234 (-1.2), 3. BKN-LAL UNDER 227 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +5 (+4.5), 2. ATLANTA +6.5 (+2.3), 3. DENVER +7 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+1.8), 2. PHILADELPHIA -5 (+1.1), 3. CHARLOTTE -4.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-MIA OVER 227 (+4.6), 2. PHI-ORL OVER 223 (+2.8), 3. PHX-NOP OVER 237 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-POR UNDER 238.5 (-3.2), 2. SAS-CHA UNDER 235.5 (-1.5), 3. DEN-BOS UNDER 234 (-1.1)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(539) ATLANTA at (540) MIAMI
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 games of the ATL-MIA series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(545) BROOKLYN at (546) LA LAKERS
* BROOKLYN is 4-1 ATS in the last five games at LA Lakers but lost last year
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(535) DENVER at (536) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 7-4-1 ATS hosting Denver since 2010
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS
(541) INDIANA at (542) PORTLAND
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the IND-POR series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(533) PHILADELPHIA at (534) ORLANDO
* PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 ATS in the last six games at Orlando
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(537) PHOENIX at (538) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine games of the PHO-NOP series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(531) SAN ANTONIO at (532) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE is 6-2 ATS in the last eight hosting San Antonio
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
