For the first time all season, the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t the betting favorites to win Super Bowl LIX. That distinction now belongs to the Detroit Lions, who are +310 to win it all at DraftKings Sportsbook — and can be found at +350 elsewhere.
This is a market reaction to the Chiefs losing 30-21 against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11, marking Kansas City’s first loss of the season. Meanwhile, Detroit earned a dominant 52-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Both of these teams now sit at 9-1 on the year, but that’s where the similarities stop. While the Chiefs have come out on top in a lot of close, ugly games, the Lions have steamrolled opponents — and have generally looked a cut above the rest of the competition.
As Gill Alexander noted on Thursday’s episode of A Numbers Game, FTN’s Aaron Schatz has the Lions as the third-best team of all time in Total DVOA through 10 games.
Our VSiN analytics guru Steve Makinen’s numbers also adore Detroit. The Lions sit atop his Power Ratings (33.5), and there’s a pretty big gap between Detroit and Buffalo (30.0), which is second on the list. Steve’s numbers actually have Kansas City (29.0) at fourth in the league, as the Baltimore Ravens (29.5) are his third-ranked team.
The Lions are also the only team in the league that belongs in the top five in both EPA per play (0.154) and EPA per play allowed (-0.117).
Detroit has simply been a wagon this season, and baked into the team’s Super Bowl price is the fact that the NFC isn’t as good as the AFC. The Lions have a much better shot at making the Super Bowl than the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills do. That’s because Detroit’s main competition in the conference comes in the form of the Philadelphia Eagles, who aren’t exactly the most reliable team in the world.
The lack of quality competition in the NFC is actually the biggest selling point for backing the Lions to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Even if you don’t believe in Detroit as a legitimate threat to win, grabbing the number and hoping for a Super Bowl appearance makes sense. You’d be extremely happy to have the Lions at +350 against whoever represents the AFC. That should set up a very nice hedging opportunity.
However, it’s hard to blame anybody that isn’t willing to quit the Chiefs. After all, Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite against the Carolina Panthers this week, and the team’s -625 moneyline price gives the Chiefs an 86.21% implied probability of moving to 10-1. And while you can point to Kansas City’s hard-fought wins as a negative, there’s also the flip side of that. Winning tight games is absolutely a skill, and having Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in the league, gives you a great shot at coming out on top in 50-50 battles.
Mahomes is 15-3 in his postseason career. Beating him is like beating the Undertaker at Wrestlemania. And while there are scenarios in which Kansas City could be an underdog throughout the AFC Playoffs, there’s also the fact that Mahomes is 11-3 as an underdog throughout his career. Sure, one of those losses came against Buffalo last week, but history suggests it’s unlikely to happen again.
The Chiefs are also looking good when it comes to earning home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. As previously mentioned, Kansas City gets Carolina this week. The Chiefs then play three of their next four games at home, and the one road game is against a beatable Cleveland Browns squad. Buffalo, currently one-game behind Kansas City in the loss column, hosts a hungry San Francisco team this week. The Bills then have to go on the road to face a solid Rams team before taking on the Lions. Meanwhile, Baltimore has fallen a little too far behind in the race, and the Pittsburgh Steelers likely have a couple of losses coming the rest of the way.
All in all, there’s a lot of football left to be played, but it’s interesting to see that Kansas City is no longer in pole position with the oddsmakers. This isn’t quite a “Ding Dong! The Witch Is Dead” situation, but perhaps that time is coming?
