The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season features the Buffalo Bills hosting the San Francisco 49ers at Highmark Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 13 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch 49ers vs. Bills
When: Sunday, December 1st at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Channel: NBC/Peacock
49ers vs. Bills Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 29th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -298, 49ers +240
Spread: Bills -7 (-110), 49ers +7 (-110)
Total: Over 43 (-115), Under 43 (-105)
49ers vs. Bills Analysis
This looked like a potential Game of the Year candidate when the schedule was released, but it’s now being held hostage by a brutal 49ers injury report — which can be found on our VSiN injury report page. It seems like Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and Deommodore Lenoir will all be out for San Francisco, and Brock Purdy’s status isn’t very encouraging. Purdy missed last game after taking a big hit to the shoulder the game before. He has been limited to light tossing in practice, making another Brandon Allen start likely. And even if Purdy does overcome his questionable tag, can you really trust him to play well in blizzard-like conditions?
All of that make it hard not to like Buffalo, which was a -3 favorite in this game back on November 19th and is now laying a touchdown. Also, due to the weather forecast, the total has dropped from 47.5 to 43.5 since this game was first posted. You can continue to monitor the line movement with our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits.
If you’re looking to play a side or a total in this game, you might want to go with the Under. Buffalo is 10th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.038), so it’s going to be very difficult for San Francisco to move the ball here. The Bills are especially tough against the run, making it highly unlikely that this turns into a big Christian McCaffrey game. And I’m not worried about the Bills secondary holding up over the top.
San Francisco is also a solid defensive team, as the Niners are 14th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.002). San Francisco isn’t as good as Buffalo on this side of the ball, and the team is missing some key defensive pieces. But the Bills will also have to deal with the conditions, and “being used to play in the cold” doesn’t make it any easier. Josh Allen has a big arm, but throwing through snow and wind isn’t easy.
The Under is also 13-10 in the 23 games that the 49ers have played against teams with winning percentages of at least 75.0% under Kyle Shanahan. And it’s 15-13-2 in the December games the Bills have played under Sean McDermott.
49ers vs. Bills Player Props
Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (+130)
While I like the Under in this game, Buffalo will surely find the end zone at least once. And down by the red zone, Allen will likely have a few chances to run one in. Allen has rushed for a touchdown in back-to-back games, and he’s the best short-yardage option the Bills have because of his massive body. In a cold-weather game, it’s hard to imagine offensive coordinator Joe Brady ignoring that. Look for Buffalo to get Allen to the outside when they’re near the goal-line, and don’t be surprised if he punches one in. The fact that this is available at plus-money odds is just a nice cherry on top.
49ers vs. Bills Pick
You might want to buy off this if the weather ends up being alright, but the Under is the best way to approach this game right now. Maybe a big play on defense or special teams will end up dooming this one, but that’s a risk that might be worth taking. It depends on how badly you want action here. San Francisco’s offense should really struggle in this spot, and Buffalo’s offense likely won’t light it up if it’s snowing and windy. This should be an ugly game to watch.
Lean: Under 43.5 (-110)
UPDATE: Brock Purdy will play in this game. I’d still lean Under.
