The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season features the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 11 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bengals vs. Chargers
When: Sunday, November 17th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Bengals vs. Chargers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 15th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chargers -122, Bengals +102
Spread: Chargers -1.5 (-110), Bengals +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 48 (-108), Under 48 (-112)
Bengals vs. Chargers Analysis
It’s not often that you see a 4-6 team going on the road against a 6-3 team and have the public all over the squad with the losing record. But that’s exactly the case in this Sunday Night Football showdown between the Bengals and Chargers. Our DraftKings betting splits page shows that nearly 75% of bettors are backing Cincinnati. The same is also true of our new Circa betting splits page. So I guess I’ll be brave and back the much better football team at a very reasonable moneyline price.
While Joe Burrow has been incredible this season, it’s very clear that the Bengals defense can’t stop anyone. This season, Cincinnati is 28th in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.077), and the group is bad against both the run and the pass. So, the Chargers should be able to run all over the Bengals here. They’re a much tougher team up front, which is what comes with having Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines. And once Los Angeles establishes the ground game, Justin Herbert will handle the rest — even with his group of misfit toys at wide receiver.
The Chargers are also built to slow down the Bengals offense. This Los Angeles team is second in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.108), so it’s going to be difficult for Burrow to just drop dimes all over the field in this one. And defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will be smart about rolling extra coverage in Ja’Marr Chase’s direction here. It’s important to do so. Chase just had 11 catches for 264 yards and three touchdowns against the Ravens. But Tee Higgins will likely be playing in this game, so Los Angeles can’t neglect him either.
But the reality here is that this Chargers team is much, much better than the Bengals defensively. And while Cincinnati has a more explosive offense, Los Angeles is capable of looking like the better offensive unit because of how bad the opposing defense is. Also, a Harbaugh-led team should be more prepared than a Zac Taylor team.
Harbaugh does’t lose very often as a favorite. In his career, his teams are 47-15 straight-up as favorites and 27-8 as home favorites. That includes a 6-1 record as favorites and 3-0 record as home favorites this year. Harbaugh also rarely loses to teams with losing records. He’s 19-5 SU when facing losing teams in his NFL career, and that includes a 3-1 mark this season.
Bengals vs. Chargers Player Props
J.K. Dobbins Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
It’s very surprising to see Dobbins’ rushing yard total this low. Dobbins has cooled off considerably since rushing for 266 yards in the first two games of the year, but he has gotten at least 15 carries in five of the last eight games. And if he hits that mark, it’s hard to imagine him not going Over this total. Rushing for 4.0 yards per carry seems very reasonable against a bottom-five defense in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed. After all, Dobbins has rushed for 4.8 yards per carry on the season. This is also going to be a game in which Los Angeles relies heavily on the rushing attack. Herbert can definitely beat this secondary with his arm, but the best path to victory for the Chargers is by keeping Burrow off the field. Running the ball efficiently will allow Los Angeles to do just that.
Bengals vs. Chargers Pick
This is one of my bigger plays of the week. I never enjoy betting against Burrow, but I have been burned by this team a lot this season. They can’t put away opponents, the defense is a nightmare and the play calling is very questionable in key moments. All of that is problematic against a very well-coached Chargers team. This will probably be somewhat close because Los Angeles doesn’t move the ball as easily as Cincinnati. But I’m confident the Chargers will find a way to get the job done.
Bet: Chargers ML (-122)
