The Monday Night Football matchup in Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season features the Buffalo Bills facing the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bills vs. Jets
When: Monday, October 14th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Channel: ABC/ESPN+
Bills vs. Jets Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, October 11th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -135, Jets +114
Spread: Bills -2.5 (-108), Jets +2.5 (-112)
Total: Over 41 (-108), Under 41 (-112)
Bills vs. Jets Analysis
Situationally, there are real reasons to believe the Jets can win this game. For starters, the Bills are playing their third road game in a row. That type of schedule can really take its toll on a team. On top of that, New York fired head coach Robert Saleh this week. The Jets decided that he shouldn’t be the guy to lead this group forward, and the front office still thinks that they can salvage this season. Some of the players on this New York roster are upset about the move. However, the general thought is that most of the Jets will want to rally around interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich. New York is also taking away play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett, who has been miserable as offensive coordinator of the Jets. Todd Downing will now be calling the shots for New York.
All in all, the Jets are expected to be the more energized team in this game, especially with this one taking place at MetLife Stadium. The Monday Night Football vibes should also help. But I just can’t get there with the Jets in this game. While a lot might be favoring New York, the Jets are also coming off a London game. That could mean that the Jets will be a little lower in energy than expected. Buffalo is also more talented on both sides of the ball, and the team has much better coaching.
It’s just not exactly clear how the Jets will be able to make the Bills uncomfortable in this game. Sure, New York is a good defensive team. The Jets are sixth in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.117), and they’re extremely good against the pass. But the Bills are fourth in the league in EPA per play (0.130) and second in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.258). This is arguably the best passing offense in the league, and Josh Allen can be trusted to make some big throws in this one. His legs will also be a pain to deal with for a New York team that still needs some pass-rushing help. The Jets have also been just decent against the run this season. And if the Bills can get their ground game going, that’ll only make things easier on offensive coordinator Joe Brady to call plays. I’m also not sure that losing Saleh makes the Jets better on defense. He’s one of the best defensive minds in the game, and not having him around could mean a small drop-off for New York at all three levels of the defense.
The Bills also happen to be a top-10 defense in the league when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.071), and I just haven’t seen anything from Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense that suggests they can go out and move the ball against an elite defense. There were some flashes against the Vikings in London, but New York wasn’t able to consistently get the job done. Also, while Downing will be a different voice for the Jets offense, he hasn’t exactly been successful as an offensive coordinator in the past. When he was calling plays for Tennessee in 2022, the Titans were 26th in the league in EPA per play (-0.066) and 25th in yards per play (5.1).
Buffalo is also an impressive 16-4 straight-up and 11-7-2 against the spread when coming off a close road loss by six or fewer points under Sean McDermott.
Bills vs. Jets Player Props
Aaron Rodgers Longest Completion Under 33.5 Yards (-115)
I’m not really sure why this total is so high. Rodgers has only had one game with a completion of 34 or more yards this season. And in the last four games, his longest completion is just 27 yards. Rodgers now faces a Bills defense that is seventh in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.096). This is not a great matchup for him, so I don’t get why anything would change drastically this week. New York’s offense might have a new play caller, but it’s a quick-hitting offense that doesn’t take many shots down the field.
Bills vs. Jets Pick
I’m not going to be on anything in this game, but I have a pretty strong lean on the Bills. And if the moneyline ends up coming down to -125 or so, I’ll probably come in with a play on Buffalo to win outright. This is a Bills team that is just as good as the Jets defensively, but they’re much better offensively. They’re also not dealing with all sorts of dysfunction behind the scenes, and they happen to have the much better quarterback. All of that should allow Buffalo to get the job done.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-108)
