The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season features the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 16 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Broncos vs. Chargers
When: Thursday, December 19th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Broncos vs. Chargers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, December 17th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chargers -148, Broncos +124
Spread: Chargers -2.5 (-115), Broncos +2.5 (-105)
Total: Over 42 (-110), Under 42 (-110)
Broncos vs. Chargers Analysis
The Broncos were able to overcome three Bo Nix interceptions to earn a 31-13 win over the Colts last week. But don’t make the mistake of being fooled by the lopsided score. It was a very close game and Indianapolis might have won if not for Jonathan Taylor dropping a touchdown before crossing the goal line — something that inexplicably continues to happen at every level of football.
Denver has now looked rather vulnerable in back-to-back weeks, with Nix returning to his turnover-prone ways from early in the season. Over the last two weeks, the rookie has thrown five interceptions. That’s part of the reason I like the Chargers to bounce back from their own nightmarish Week 15 performance.
The Broncos do have the league’s best EPA per play allowed (-0.136), so the Chargers are going to need to prove they can manufacture enough points to win this one. However, Los Angeles’ EPA per play allowed (-0.045) is also quite strong. And the Chargers are good against both the run and the pass, so it’s not like the Broncos will be able to count on finding success anywhere. Sure, Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans absolutely dominated Los Angeles last week, but Denver doesn’t have the same option of chucking the ball down the field and hoping a wide receiver comes away with it. Courtland Sutton is a great receiver in his own right, but he isn’t as big or naturally gifted as Evans. Also, one would think that Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will fix the secondary issues that showed up last Sunday.
I also don’t think Denver will be able to run the ball very effectively here, as Broncos running backs rushed for only 44 yards against the Chargers last time around. And if Denver can’t run the ball efficiently, that will take some options away from Sean Payton as a play caller.
Los Angeles could also play a bit better offensively than it did when it beat Denver 23-16 earlier in the year. Justin Herbert has more trust in his receivers now, especially with Ladd McConkey having emerged as a flat-out stud.
This is also an interesting matchup because the Broncos have won a lot of games by just being more prepared than their opponents. That’s life with Payton on the sidelines. He’s a fantastic head coach. He also has a great staff around him. However, Jim Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the world. So, I don’t see an edge for either team when it comes to the X’s and O’s. But I do see home-field advantage being big for the Chargers here, even though they have one of the weaker fanbases in the league. Denver is just 4-8 straight-up and 6-6 against the spread as a road underdog under Payton. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 4-1 both SU and ATS as a home favorite under Harbaugh.
Broncos vs. Chargers Player Props
Quentin Johnston Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I’m nervous about playing the Over on Johnston’s receiving yard total, as he does have his issue with drops. However, Patrick Surtain II is likely going to be defending McConkey quite a bit in this one, and he’s one of the best corners in football. That said, Herbert is going to need to look elsewhere, and Johnston is the natural option. After all, the second-year wideout did have five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay last week. He was also targeted 10 times in that one, meaning he has now been targeted 17 times over the last two weeks.
Just keep an eye on Johnston’s injury status. He’s dealing with an injured ankle and missed Monday’s practice. There’s no guarantee he’ll play. However, I’d fire up the Over if he is active.
Broncos vs. Chargers Pick
This spread has bounced around a little since it opened, but I’d take the Chargers -2.5 if it’s still out there. Otherwise, maybe it’s worth biting the bullet on some juice and grabbing the moneyline. I’ll personally do the latter with my Week 16 NFL best bets. It’s just hard to ignore that Los Angeles got the better of Denver on the road earlier in the year. This Broncos team isn’t quite as strong away from home, and the Chargers have enjoyed being home favorites this season. I also just don’t like this matchup for Nix. He has been stellar this season, but Los Angeles’ defense is legit.
Bet: Chargers ML (-143)
