The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season features the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 16 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
When: Sunday, December 22nd at 8:20 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, December 19th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Buccaneers -198, Cowboys +164
Spread: Buccaneers -4 (-108), Cowboys +4 (-112)
Total: Over 48 (-112), Under 48 (-108)
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Analysis
A quick glance at our DraftKings betting splits page and Circa betting splits page would show that most bettors are loving Tampa Bay in this game. However, the line isn’t budging at all. That signals some sharp action on the Cowboys, and that’s the side I like as well.
Since Micah Parsons’ Week 10 return, Dallas is eighth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.032). The Cowboys also have a Dropback EPA per play allowed of -0.062. This Dallas team really should be able to keep Baker Mayfield and Co. in check, even with no Trevon Diggs in the secondary. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer had his team fired up and ready to go against the Panthers last week, and the 68-year-old has done an underrated job with his unit for most of the year. Zimmer should be able to put together a good plan of action against Tampa Bay. That plan will include quite a bit of pressure. The Buccaneers do have a very good offensive line, but the Cowboys have several players that should be able to make life difficult on Mayfield.
There’s also no reason to believe that Dallas won’t be able to score here. This Tampa team is just 18th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.025), and the team is 19th in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.098). The reason that’s concerning is that Cooper Rush has played some good football for the Cowboys. Dallas has won three of its last four games, and Rush has a TD-INT ratio of 8-1 in that span. Last week, Rush threw for 214 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. The 31-year-old is good about finding CeeDee Lamb and forcing the ball his way. And I don’t think the Buccaneers will have much of an answer for that.
Tampa Bay is also just 5-7 against the spread in December games under Todd Bowles. The team is also 5-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under him.
I also wouldn’t blame anybody for looking at the Over in this game. While I think Dallas’ defense will outperform the Tampa Bay defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a decent amount of points scored. In the 16 home games with totals between 42.5 and 49 points that Dallas has played under Mike McCarthy, the Over is 13-3. The Over is also a combined 18-10 in the games these two teams have played this season.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Player Props
Jake Ferguson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Ferguson has only gone Over this game’s 33.5-yard mark in four of the 11 games he has played this year. However, this is a really good matchup for tight ends. This season, only Kansas City is allowing more yards per game than Tampa Bay to opposing tight ends. The Buccaneers are giving up 69.6 yards per game to the position, and the Cowboys would be foolish not to take advantage of that. It’s also not like Tampa Bay is just struggling against elite tight ends. Last week, Stone Smartt had 50 receiving yards against the Buccaneers. And two weeks before that, Tommy Tremble had 77 receiving yards against Tampa.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Pick
I’m going to be playing Dallas with the points in this game, but I’m also taking the Ferguson prop. I’ll go a little bigger on the Cowboys, but I want something on both plays. While Tampa Bay is a rock-solid team, this Dallas group isn’t nearly as bad as people think. The Cowboys are also playing hard for McCarthy, so they aren’t going to just roll over here.
Bet: Cowboys +4 (-110) & Ferguson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
