The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season features the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 3 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Chiefs vs. Falcons
When: Sunday, September 22nd at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Chiefs vs. Falcons Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, September 20th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -162, Falcons +136
Spread: Chiefs -3 (-112), Falcons +3 (-108)
Total: Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Falcons Analysis
According to our NFL betting splits page, most of the action in this game is on Kansas City. However, the Chiefs have gone from -3.5 to -3 at most shops, which signals some reverse line movement. I generally like to avoid being on a side that is heavily backed by the public, and that’s pretty clearly the Chiefs here. However, I can’t help myself with this game. Kansas City seems like the right side, especially now that the team is laying only a field goal.
I know the Falcons were able to steal a win out of nowhere against the Eagles on Monday, but this is a team that should be 0-2 right now. Atlanta is also just 21st in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.064) and 16th in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.023). This team hasn’t looked good in any way, shape or form, and Kirk Cousins’ inability to move around is still a major issue to me. Sure, Cousins was able to quickly march down the field and throw a game-winning touchdown to Drake London last week, but he had done nothing to that point. And the Eagles really made things easy on him all night, opting not to send any pressure at him. Well, I just don’t think you can expect the same from Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. He’s very aggressive as a defensive play caller and is going to put Cousins’ movement to the test often.
The only thing to be worried about in this game is that the Chiefs have struggled against the run. So, keeping Bijan Robinson in check could be a bit of an issue. Perhaps that’s a reason to play Overs on Robinson’s yardage props, but I don’t see it being enough for Atlanta to win this game — or lose by less than a field goal. Cousins is going to need to be able to make some big throws in this game, and I think he’ll have trouble doing so if Kansas City can consistently get bodies in the backfield.
I’m also not concerned about the Chiefs offense at all here. The Falcons secondary has held up nicely through two weeks, but that was against Justin Fields and an A.J. Brown-less Jalen Hurts. The latter also happened to play pretty well until Philadelphia got into the money downs. Patrick Mahomes should do a much better job of converting when his team needs him to. It’s also hard to worry too much about the loss of Isiah Pacheco. He has obviously been a great player for the Chiefs, but PFF has Kansas City as its fifth-best offensive line through two weeks. Whoever ends up getting the carries in this offense should be able to run the ball efficiently until Pacheco returns.
It’s also worth noting that this line dropping to 3 brings up an interesting Andy Reid trend. The Chiefs are 45-22 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Reid. That also speaks to Mahomes’ ability to win close games — or games that are expected to be close.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Player Props
Carson Steele Over 1.5 Receptions (-130)
There’s a pretty good chance the Chiefs roll with a committee approach in the backfield now that Pacheco is injured. Kansas City is high on Steele, but Samaje Perine is a capable running back and recently-signed Kareem Hunt will be a part of the mix once he’s up to speed. However, Steele should have a pretty big role in this offense over the next few weeks. And while many seem to think of him as a bruising between-the-tackles runner, he’s actually a pretty good pass catcher.
Two years ago, Steele had 29 receptions when he was playing for Ball State. And overall, he had 58 catches over three years in college. So, even though Steele hasn’t been targeted in the passing game through two NFL games, he’s a guy with good hands and the ability to pick up good yardage after the catch. I’d be surprised if Matt Nagy doesn’t tap into that skill set in the near future. And realistically, there’s no better time than now. Steele is not going to be a focal point of the Falcons scouting report, and the fact that he hasn’t caught a pass in two weeks could mean that Atlanta won’t be ready for him to be involved as a pass-catcher.
It’s also worth noting that Saquon Barkley had four catches against this Falcons defense last week, and he should have really had five. (You might remember that drop.)
Chiefs vs. Falcons Pick
I was hoping to jump on Kansas City -3 all week, so I’m thrilled about the line getting there. The Chiefs are now one of my Week 3 NFL best bets. I get that this stadium is going to be absolutely rocking, as these fans will be hungry for a 2-1 start and a win over the defending Super Bowl champions. But the Chiefs are more talented on both sides of the ball, have the best quarterback in football and also happen to be better coached. That makes it hard not to trust them, even in a difficult road environment.
Pick: Chiefs -3 (-109)
