T Shoe Index NFL picks for the Conference Championship Games
I’m not sure many people are surprised about the AFC championship matchup between the Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) and the Kansas City Chiefs. The presumed MVP in Lamar Jackson taking on the NFL’s golden child and reigning champion, Patrick Mahomes is not exactly an underdog story. In the NFC, though, there was much more of a question mark about who might get this far, but the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers (-7) prevailed and will face off for a chance to head to the Super Bowl. Now, let’s see what my T Shoe Index projects will happen in these conference championship games with some NFL picks and best bets.
Keep an eye on the NFL betting odds, NFL betting splits and also give the Vegas NFL odds a look to see where the lines might go as kickoff approaches.
Here are my favorite plays for the Conference Championship:
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 44.5
Baltimore has spent the majority of this season as the #1 team in the TSI, so the fact they’re in the conference championship game as field goal favorites is not a surprise to those that have followed my numbers this year. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been a little more up and down in my ratings, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. These teams finished the regular season ranked #1 and #6, respectively, overall in the TSI; furthermore, the Ravens’ offense finished #2, while the Chiefs’ offense finished #13.
On the defensive side, Baltimore boasts the #1 TSI defense and Kansas City sits at #3. Did I just talk myself into an under? This all shakes out to the Ravens being projected to win by 7.8, with a total of 42.4. So, TSI likes the Ravens and the under here, so one bet that encapsulates both of those concepts, to a degree:
Best Bet: Chiefs team total Under 20.5
San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs Detroit Lions, O/U 51
I mentioned that Ravens spent most of the season as the #1 team, that’s because the 49ers held that spot for a few weeks this year and rightfully so. The problem with San Francisco was not a matter of team ceiling, rather, its consistency. They showed the ability to dominate at times, but also get lulled to sleep in some games, which obviously affected their rating. The Lions, on the other hand, have been pretty consistently in the top 10, but their defensive rating has really held them back despite a top 5-ish offense all season.
So how do these teams match up? It’s easy to understand why the total is up to 51, as both offenses finished the season in the top 5 of the TSI, with the 49ers at #3 and Detroit at #5. Defensively, San Francisco’s dominant unit is ranked #2, while Detroit is all the way down at #23. The Lions’ D vs the SF offense will be the biggest mismatch of the weekend, on paper. This all translates to a TSI projection of the 49ers -6.4 with a total of 48.8. No official play here for me, but I would lean Lions +7
Lean: Lions +7
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
