VSiN Tonight co-host Wes Reynolds shares his NFL best bets for the conference championship round.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 44.5)
Last week, the Ravens did something which they have rarely done this season – get off to a bad start in the first half. Then, MVP favorite Lamar Jackson ripped into his team, and they came out and dominated the Houston Texans in the second half.
Baltimore leads the NFL this season in first half point differential at +7.9 points and are 14-4 ATS this season in the first 30 minutes. The Ravens were clearly rusty last week in the Divisional Round after essentially having two bye weeks (including Week 18 where the starters were held out).
The Ravens rank better than the Chiefs in Rush Offense DVOA (1st vs. 17th), Pass Offense DVOA (5th vs. 8th), Rush Defense DVOA (7th vs. 27th), Pass Defense DVOA (1st vs. 5th), and even Special Teams DVOA (3rd vs. 6th).
The home team also returns TE Mark Andrews (first time since Week 11) and top CB Marlon Humphrey (first time since Week 16). Meanwhile, Kansas City will be without its lynchpin on the OL as LG Joe Thuney is out with a pec injury. Thuney allowed zero pressures in ten one-on-one matchups last week vs. Bills star DT Ed Oliver. He also ranks as the No. 1 pass-blocking guard per PFF.
Kansas City is just 1-7 ATS in the first half in its last eight and Baltimore should come out sharper than last week.
Bet: Ravens -2.5 (-125) 1H (Play to -3)
