In the first of two Christmas Day matchups in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs at Acrisure Stadium. We’ll continue diving into all of the stand-alone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Chiefs vs. Steelers
When: Wednesday, December 25th at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Channel: Netflix
Chiefs vs. Steelers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, December 23rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -142, Steelers +120
Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110), Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Steelers Analysis
The Steelers have scored only 30 points over the last two weeks, and they simply haven’t looked good offensively in the three games they have played without George Pickens. However, it does seem like the 23-year-old will be out there in this game. That should change everything for Pittsburgh. When Russell Wilson had Pickens in the lineup, he looked a lot like the quarterback he was in Seattle. But the Steelers just aren’t deep enough with pass catchers to have Pickens on the sidelines. And that’s especially true in a game like this one. The Chiefs have allowed 19 or fewer points in each of their last four games.
With Pickens set to return, this becomes a game in which backing Pittsburgh looks like the right call. Our VSiN DraftKings betting splits page and Circa betting splits page show that bettors are on Kansas City, and that’s not surprising considering the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs are 14-1. However, not much separates these two teams in DVOA, with Kansas City being 15.2% and Pittsburgh being 10.5%. Also, the Steelers are slightly better when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.038 vs. -0.012). Realistically, in a game in which there isn’t much between the teams statistically, home-field advantage could make all the difference.
Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 95-45 straight-up when playing at home. The Steelers are also 78-55 SU in games with lines between +3 and -3, and they’re 21-10 SU when coming off a loss to a division rival. I just wouldn’t be surprised if Tomlin has his guys fired up and ready to go, especially with this being a massive game. Pittsburgh will win the AFC North if the team wins out.
It’s also worth noting that Wilson is an excellent late-game quarterback. The Chiefs win a lot of games because of Mahomes’ ability to execute in one-possession battles, but Wilson will be very comfortable if that’s what this turns into.
Between Pittsburgh having a defensive edge, the Steelers playing at home and the team also having a reliable coach-quarterback combo, the right way to play this game might just be to back the home underdog on the moneyline. This game is closer to a 50-50, and I give Pittsburgh a slightly better chance of winning than Kansas City.
The total is a bit harder to call. The number is low enough that I understand going Over, but this will likely turn into a playoff-style game. The winner will need to earn it in the trenches. The Under is actually 27-18-1 in the games the Steelers have played against teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under Tomlin. It’s also 48-43-1 when the Chiefs play teams with winning records under Andy Reid.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Player Props
Pat Freiermuth Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
All of the attention will be on Pickens in this game, but the Chiefs are giving up more receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends than any team in football. That said, this could be a game in which Pat Freiermuth makes an impact. Freiermuth has had three receptions in three consecutive games, but I like him to have more in this one. I also think he’ll have at least 31 yards for the first time since Week 14. Kansas City doesn’t lose sleep over giving up some easy short receptions, and Wilson will take what he can get on a very short week of preparation. So, I see him looking Freiermuth’s way quite a bit in this game, and I can easily see this being a game in which the tight end flirts with five or six catches for 50 yards. He has gone Over the mark for this game seven times this year. And this is the best matchup he has had all season.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Pick
This is a toss-up game that the home team desperately needs, so I’m taking the plus-money odds and going Pittsburgh moneyline. I hate betting against the Chiefs. I seemingly get burned every single time. But you can’t just go away from something because it has hurt you in the past. This is a game that can easily go either way, so getting this type of price is tough to pass up. Look for the Steelers defense to rise to the occasion, and let’s hope the Pittsburgh offense can come up with enough plays to steal this.
Bet: Steelers ML (+126)
