T Shoe Index NFL picks for the Divisional Round
Wild-Card Weekend did not disappoint from an entertainment standpoint, as the Packers and Texans both rode young quarterbacks to monstrous underdog wins, setting us up for an even better divisional round. From a betting perspective, the Steelers couldn’t quite cover the number for us, but to be fair, it wasn’t quite the weather game we were anticipating due to it being moved (twice). My favorite bet of the week, as given out here and on other platforms, was the Bucs covering the 3 points against the Eagles and boy, did they ever. But, 1-1 best bets weekend is not what we’re here to do, so let’s get to this weekend’s NFL picks and hope we can win our way to 3-1 for the playoffs.
Keep an eye on the NFL betting odds, NFL betting splits and also give the Vegas NFL odds a look to see where the lines might go as kickoff approaches.
Here are my favorite plays for the Divisional Round:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions (-6.5), O/U 48.5
In Baker we trust? After a dominant performance against the overrated (per TSI) Philadelphia Eagles, I’m going back to the well with the Bucs as underdogs against the Lions, who TSI projected to win by 4 last week and, until a late field goal cut their lead to 1, were doing just that. This game will be a contrast of styles from how these teams have played all season, as the Lions clearly have the offensive edge – #5 in TSI compared to #17 Tampa Bay – but the Bucs have the defensive advantage – #7 in TSI vs #23. If you read my “When to buy points in the NFL” article, you’d recognize this as an opportunity to buy to the key number of 7 if you can get the right price (see the price equivalency chart in the article). I think Tampa keeps it within a touchdown, with TSI projecting a 4 point Lions’ win.
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (but look for a price to buy to 7 or 7.5)
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 45.5
We faded Buffalo last week and lost. That’s no reason to blindly bet on a team, of course, but what it could tell us is that they might’ve been slightly undervalued by my numbers, so the fact that this week I’m showing value on them is a good sign. Besides, they’re playing the Chiefs, who TSI has loved defensively this year but has not been a fan of, offensively. I project Bills -4 in a game featuring the Bills’ #6 offense against the Chiefs’ #3 defense, and conversely, the Chiefs’ 13th-ranked offense against the Bills’ #4 defense. Buffalo has seemingly turned it on, lately, which gives me even more confidence in them covering this game at home. If this line gets to 3, be sure to reference that “When to buy points” article because it covers the math of when it makes sense to buy off of 3 down to 2.5.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (Play to -3)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
