The Monday Night Football matchup in Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season features the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Miami Dolphins at SoFi Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 10 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Dolphins vs. Rams
When: Monday, November 11th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Channel: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Dolphins vs. Rams Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, November 10th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Rams -135, Dolphins +114
Spread: Rams -2.5 (-112), Dolphins +2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 49 (-108), Under 49 (-112)
Dolphins vs. Rams Analysis
The Dolphins got Tua Tagovailoa back two weeks ago. Since the lefty quarterback returned under center, Miami is 0-2 straight-up and 1-1 against the spread. However, the Dolphins have also averaged 27.0 points per game. The offense looks back after five straight weeks with 15 or fewer points. With the Rams having averaged 28.0 points per game over the last two games, it isn’t hard to see why the total is set so high here. And perhaps the Over is worth a look. However, I should warn you that the Over is receiving more bets than the Under, yet the number has come down from 49.5 to 49 at DraftKings. That’s generally an indicator that there’s some sharp money on the Under. That said, I’ll personally be laying off the total.
As for the side, it’s only a matter of time before Miami starts winning some football games. But I’m not sure I see it happening here. As previously mentioned, the Dolphins offense is looking good again. In fact, Miami was second in the NFL in EPA per play (0.245) in Weeks 8 and 9. However, Los Angeles was 10th in the league in that regard (0.119) in that same span, and the team will have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both out there again. That said, I don’t see the Dolphins with a clear advantage on offense in this matchup. But on the other side of the ball, Los Angeles is much better than its opponent. Over the last two games, the Rams are third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.095), and they have been especially good against the run. Well, if Los Angeles’ defense can keep the Miami running game in check, that should help out the secondary quite a bit. While Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are big plays waiting to happen, the Dolphins rely heavily on the running game to set up the pass. Tagovailoa is at his best when teams are biting on the play-action pass.
While the Rams defense has played well recently — and has really been solid for a majority of this season — the Dolphins are last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.214) over the last two games. This group has not been able to get stops. So, would you rather a very good offense against a very good defense, or a good offense against a miserable defense? I’ll take the latter. And I’ll also take Sean McVay in a coaching matchup against Mike McDaniel, who is just 2-12 SU as a road underdog with the Dolphins. Meanwhile, McVay is 41-23 SU at home with the Rams, and he’s also 36-15 SU when his team is favored at home.
Dolphins vs. Rams Player Props
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128)
The Rams are going to try and run the ball a lot in this game. Doing so will tire out the Dolphins defense and keep the Miami offense off the field. But at some point, Stafford is going to be asked to let it rip. And that makes it hard not to like the 36-year-old to throw for at least two touchdowns in this game. Stafford has thrown for six touchdowns over the last two games, and the Dolphins are just 24th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.096). This is not a team that can be counted on to slow down an explosive passing game, and that’s exactly what the Rams have when Kupp and Nacua are out there. Also, the Dolphins have given up multiple passing touchdowns in back-to-back games.
Dolphins vs. Rams Pick
I’m really high on this current version of the Rams. Los Angeles has figured things out defensively, and the team is finally healthy offensively. That should be enough to get by a Dolphins team that is starting to run out of time. Miami should be able to put together some successful drives in this game, but Los Angeles should be able to match it and do more. The Rams are also the team that is more likely to come up with the big stops. They have a better defense and a better coaching staff. With that, along with home-field advantage, Los Angeles should win this game outright. I’m adding it as a Week 10 NFL best bet.
Bet: Rams ML (-133)
