Week 8 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 9. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 42.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers (4-3) have won two of their last three games and just brushed aside the Saints 26-8, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Browns (2-6) just snapped a five-game losing skid with a 29-24 win over the Ravens, winning outright as 7.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even spread bet split we’ve seen Los Angeles fall from -4.5 to -2. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the number. So, based on this line move we can infer that smart money has sided with the Browns plus the points at home. Cleveland is only receiving 50% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. The Browns have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (42.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Cleveland is also in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot (+2 to +8), passing through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. In terms of the total, is opened at 39.5 and got bet up to 42.5. The under is receiving 46% of bets but 67% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split at an inflated price. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% to the under, historically. The Chargers are 6-1 to the under this season, the best under team in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams (-2, 48.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams (3-4) have won two straight games and just took down the Vikings 30-20, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (4-4) have lost four of their last five games and just got crushed by the Bills 31-10, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. The early opener for this game was Seahawks -3 at home. However, after their poor performance against Buffalo and the Rams’ big win over the Vikings, we quickly saw this line flip to Los Angeles -2. Some shops are even leaning toward -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on Los Angeles from open to current. The Rams are receiving 69% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support from sharps and the betting public alike. Road favorites are 26-16 ATS (62%) with a 17% ROI this season. Those looking to mitigate some risk in a potential close win that may not cover the spread could elect to play Los Angeles on the moneyline at -130. Road favorites are 32-12 (73%) with a 14% ROI straight up this season. The Rams enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Seahawks played on Sunday. Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (48.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number. Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the read team, historically.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 46.5)
The Colts (4-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Texans 23-20 but covering as 5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Vikings (5-2) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Rams 30-20, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for the Vikings and 72% of spread bets are laying the points with Minnesota at home. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve see the Vikings fall from -6.5 to -5.5. Some shops are even down to -5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, as they line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. This move also coincided with the news that the Colts will start Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson at quarterback, signaling that the market believes Flacco is an upgrade. Indianapolis has notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 28% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised Sunday Night Football showdown. The Colts are receiving 28% of spread bets but 38% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Sweet spot road dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 21-13 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI this season. Primetime dogs are 129-108 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team, historically.
