It’s time for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 5 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 5 NFL best bets and Week 5 NFL predictions.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
2024 NFL Best Bets Record: 13-13 (+0.51 units)
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings – 9:30 am ET (London)
The Jets offensive line was a mess in a home loss to the Broncos last week. Breece Hall was only able to rush 10 times for four yards, Aaron Rodgers got beat up pretty bad and the five players up front were responsible for a bunch of false starts. The Jets should be able to figure that out eventually. However, this isn’t a normal week of practice with the team having to make the trip across the pond. So, it’s hard to have faith in New York getting everything sorted out. And the Jets now take on a Vikings team that is first in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.189). Brian Flores has his defense looking better than any other unit in the league. The Vikings are fifth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.174), so they’re going to make things tough on Hall and the Jets running game. They’re also first in the league in Dropback EPA per play (-0.195), so this secondary should be ready for Rodgers and a mediocre passing attack.
I also have some faith in Minnesota’s offense to find success against a good New York defense. The Vikings aren’t as good offensively as they are defensively, but Sam Darnold has done everything that Kevin O’Connell has asked of him under center. He’s getting the ball to Justin Jefferson and the rest of Minnesota’s playmakers, and he should be able to make all the necessary throws here. You’d also have to think that this is a game that Darnold really wants to win, as the Jets were the team that drafted him — and ultimately gave up on him. Oddly enough, this is also a revenge game for O’Connell:
This Minnesota team has also performed at a high level when favored under O’Connell. The Vikings are 15-3 straight-up when laying points with O’Connell on the sidelines. And while they’re only 8-8-2 against the spread in those games, I’m just taking Minnesota to win this thing outright.
Bet: Vikings ML (-140 – 2 units)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos – 4:05 pm ET
It’s definitely hard to back the Broncos, as they’re averaging only 15.5 points per game and quarterback Bo Nix has thrown for just 660 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions. But this team is still 2-2 and has won back-to-back games. First, Denver rolled into Raymond James Stadium and beat up on a very good Tampa Bay team. That was a 26-7 win for the Broncos. The team then went on the road and earned a hard-fought 10-9 win over the Jets. This Denver defense is now third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.174), which is insane considering how bad the unit was last year. But Vance Joseph is pressing all the right buttons this season, and the team has been especially stingy against the pass. That makes it hard to imagine the Raiders offense putting up a lot of points in this game — especially with Davante Adams unlikely to play as Vegas looks to deal him.
This thing will then come down to whether or not the Broncos can put up points. The good news is that Vegas is a below-average team when it comes to stopping the run and the pass. So, Sean Payton should be able to get his offense going for a couple of drives in this one. Nix should also be feeling a little more confident now, as he has gone two games without throwing a pick. He also threw the first touchdown pass of his career last week.
Overall, this isn’t a game I’m looking forward to watching. It’s going to be ugly. But I like Denver to move to 3-2 and cover the small spread.
Bet: Broncos -2.5 (-115)
Last Week
Giants +4.5 (-105 – 1.5 units) vs. Cowboys
Giants ML (+195 – 0.5 units) vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers ML (+110) vs. Eagles
Vikings ML (+126) vs. Packers
Steelers -1.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Colts
Falcons ML (-125 – 2 units) vs. Saints
Browns ML (-135 – 1.5 units) vs. Raiders
Ravens ML (-130 – 2 units) vs. Bills
Tyler Lockett Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-112) vs. Lions
