It’s time for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 9 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 9 NFL best bets and Week 9 NFL predictions.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns – 1:00 pm ET
I understand that the Browns were a little fortunate to beat the Ravens last week. Right before Jameis Winston threw a game-winning 38-yard bomb to Cedric Tillman, he threw a pass that really should have been picked. However, Winston also threw for 334 yards in the game, and this Browns offense was moving the ball rather easily. That is what we have come to expect from Kevin Stefanski-led teams, and Winston’s willingness to drive the ball down the field should mean that Cleveland’s offense will be solid the rest of the season. Also, Winston has the entire team believing that it can win games again, and the Browns fanbase absolutely loves him. That makes Huntington Bank Field a difficult place to win again.
Cleveland’s EPA per play of 0.132 last week would be good for fourth in the NFL if stretched out over the entire season. That should give you an idea of how good the Browns looked on that side of the ball. And that’s why it’s fair to believe that they’ll be able to give the Chargers trouble. For as good as Los Angeles’ rushing defense is, the team is beatable in the secondary. So, Winston’s arm should cause some issues.
The Browns also happen to be a solid defensive team, even if we have seen some rough-looking performances out of them this year. They’re just 18th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.005), but they’re 13th against the run (-0.094). That’s crucial against a Chargers team that is eighth in the league in rushing play percentage (48.57%). Cleveland is going to look to set up third-and-long situations for Justin Herbert, and he could struggle to deliver in a tough road environment.
Cleveland is also 25-13 straight-up in home games under Stefanski. And the Browns are 9-4 SU under him when coming off two home games in a row.
Bet: Browns ML (+106 – 1.5 units)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans – 1:00 pm ET
I’m going to be pretty surprised if this game ends up being played in the 40s. This season, New England is 27th in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.124) and Tennessee is 30th (-0.175). These are two miserable offensive teams. The Titans also happen to be 11th in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.035), so they’re a solid group on the defensive side of the ball. That said, the Patriots should have some real trouble moving the ball in this game. And while New England doesn’t have the same strong defensive numbers, the defense should look pretty good against a Mason Rudolph-led offense.
The Under is also 2-1 in the three road games the Patriots have played this season, and it’s 2-1 in the three home games the Titans have played.
I’m just not sure how this game will be anything but a slugfest. Maybe Tony Pollard rips off a big run or two against New England’s miserable rushing defense, but that wouldn’t be enough for this to look like a normal football game.
Bet: Under 38.5 (-125)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers – 4:25 pm ET
The Lions have looked like an absolute wagon this season. There’s no denying that. However, Jared Goff’s struggles outdoors have been well documented, and going on the road and winning at Lambeau Field will be a huge test for him. Not only does it look like it’ll be cold and rainy, but Green Bay is ninth in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.069). The Packers are especially tough against the run (-0.129), so Green Bay likely won’t let the Detroit running game get going. That will put a lot on Goff’s shoulders, and this could be the type of game that trips him up.
This also could be a game in which the Lions will really miss Aidan Hutchinson. The Packers have been getting some great play up front this season. So, Detroit might not be able to get pressure on Jordan Love, who looks like he will be playing here. And if that’s the case, Love should be able to pick apart this very burnable secondary.
The Packers are also a ridiculous 37-11 SU at home under Matt LaFleur. On top of that, they’re 24-11 against the spread as underdogs, and 6-2 both SU and ATS as home underdogs.
Outside of Love’s shaky health, there’s just a lot working in Green Bay’s favor. So, I’m going big on the Packers to cover, but I’m also putting a little on the moneyline.
Bet: Packers +3.5 (-112 – 2 units) & Packers ML (+130)
Additional Week 9 Best Bets
Texans ML (+110 – 1.5 units) – Click here for my Texans vs. Jets preview!
Jameis Winston Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (+105)
TEASER: Bengals ML vs. Raiders & Broncos +16.5 vs. Ravens (-120 – 1.5 units)
Cardinals ML (-120 – 2 units) vs. Bears
Rams Alt +7.5 vs. Seahawks & Eagles ML vs. Jaguars (-165 – 1.5 units)
Colts +5.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Vikings – Click here for my Colts vs. Vikings preview!
Colts ML (+195 – 0.5) vs. Vikings
Downs Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114) vs. Vikings – Click here for my Colts vs. Vikings preview!
Cade Otton Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115 – 1.5 units)
Kareem Hunt Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114 – 1.5 units)
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2024 NFL Best Bets Record: 19-20 (-2.70 units)
