Doesn’t it feel great? The NFL is back!
Despite my excitement, I like to exercise caution at the beginning of the season. Rosters are much more static in the NFL than in college, but we still do not know these teams. Unlike the contests we are all in, I’m not forced to play five sides each week. I’ll use that to my advantage.
This week, we’ve got two best bets in the NFL, and both involve a couple of teams that I believe the market is not giving enough credit to.
NFL Best Bets For Week 1
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Chicago was a team I wanted to back this season, but the market has priced me out. In fact, the Bears have been power rated so highly by the betting market that I will be playing against them early in the season.
Tennessee remade its roster this offseason. Specifically, the front office targeted a troublesome offensive line. They drafted JC Latham in the first round to protect Will Levis’ blindside. Lloyd Cushenberry was signed to play center. A unit which allowed Levis to be pressured on 44.5% of his dropbacks, looks completely different. Talent was added at the skill position groups with Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard as well.
In all, the Titans will likely roll out 13 new starters when they take the field on Sunday. It is a group that is hard to rate given the roster turnover. I would argue it is a much better group than last season, and they are being undervalued here.
Or maybe, it is the Bears that are being overvalued.
Chicago has a promising core, starting with Caleb Williams at quarterback. However, the market is rating this team like a playoff squad, and I have my doubts. Homefield advantage is not worth the standard three points anymore. To say the Bears are nearly three points better on a neutral than the Titans is too much for my taste. I’ll take my chances with the road team here.
Play: Titans (+4)
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Arizona is going to be a better offense than most believe this season. Kyler Murray is fully healthy and ended last season on a high note. In the final three games of the regular season he was the ninth-highest graded quarterback by PFF. He threw six touchdowns to one interception and was not charged with a turnover-worthy play. Murray has huge upside as a quarterback, and the pieces around him are better.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best receiver prospect the league has seen in a long time. Tight end Trey McBride emerged as a legitimate receiving threat last season. James Conner is a massive threat out of the backfield. They also face a defense with some issues on the back end.
Buffalo’s safety group could be a weakness throughout the entire year. The team also lost Matt Milano to a bicep injury that could cost him most of the season. The Bills defense is not going to be as stout as years past. The Cardinals should be able to move the ball on Sunday.
Having said that, Arizona does not have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The Cardinals finished 31st in both opponent EPA per play and EPA per pass last season. Despite the losses in the wide receiver room for Buffalo, it too should have success with Josh Allen under center.
So, I’m playing this game over the total. The number has not moved much, but I do believe we could see this close slightly higher than the consensus number on the board today.
Play: OVER 47.5
