NFL Divisional Round Prop Best Bets
On Tuesday, we took a look at the best bets from a side and total perspective for the divisional round and are already ahead of a couple of moves. With prop betting, it’s even more important to bet early. Last week, in this article, I gave out Flacco o264.5 passing yards on a Thursday, and by kickoff, his number was 276.5 -130 to the over. Betting props early if you are playing the Over makes a massive difference. If you are looking to the Under, wait just before kickoff.
Houston at Baltimore
Let’s go to Lamar Jackson and his rushing prop in this spot. When these two teams faced in Week 1, Lamar ran for over six yards per carry but did not get the workload to go over his total. His carries total for this weekend’s game is 12.5. He should cruise to the Over if he gets anywhere near that. Houston also struggled against the only other rushing quarterback that they have faced, Kyler Murray. He ran for 51 yards on carries.
In a high-leverage spot, I expect Lamar to run the ball between 10 and 12 times. That should be more than enough to hit the over here.
The Bet: Jackson o52.5 Rush Yards
Green Bay at San Francisco
We are going back to the well with Luke Musgrave props here! I talked about this last week on The Handle (7-10 p.m. ET Saturday, 12-2 p.m. ET Sunday), and Luke was able to come through on his regular and alt receiving yards totals. Before last week, he missed five games with a lacerated kidney. Before the injury, he was clearly TE1 in this offense. For the second straight week, he is being lined as TE2 behind Tucker Craft. His prop is sitting at 18.5, a total he went over in 9 of 12 games this year. I expect he gets the lion’s share of the TE targets again this weekend, especially downfield, and eclipses this number.
Since it is set so low, we can also look at alternate lines here and get some nice plus money!
The Bets: Musgrave o18.5 receiving yards, 25+ at +115, 40+ at +320
Tampa Bay at Detroit
This is another game where we are going back to the well. This time it’s all about Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Sun God has been on fire to close the season, going over 100 yards in four of his last five games, and the match is positive once again. The last time these two teams met, a 20-6 Lions win, the Bucs’ defense was stout against the run, allowing just 1.8 yards per carry, forcing the Lions to take to the air. That allowed St. Brown to feast and go for 124 yards.
With a similar defense plan this weekend, St. Brown should see a large percentage of man-to-man coverage since Tampa has one of the higher blitz rates in the NFL. That is wonder news to Over players’ ears since Goff’s primary target when blitzed is St. Brown, and it creates opportunities for big chunks of yards as well.
The Bets: St. Brown o91.5 receiving yards, 100+ at +100, 120 at +225
