The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season features the New York Jets hosting the Houston Texans at MetLife Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to the Week 9 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Texans vs. Jets
When: Thursday, October 31st at 8:15 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Channel: Prime Video
Texans vs. Jets Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, October 29th. Make sure you look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Jets -125, Texans +105
Spread: Jets -1.5 (-110), Texans +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 42 (-112), Under 42 (-108)
Texans vs. Jets Analysis
This is going to end up being a Pros vs. Joes game. Our VSiN betting splits page shows over 80% of the bets and handle on Houston, yet the line is moving the opposite way. I generally like to be on the sharp side in these situations. Last week, that’s where I was with the Rams when they took on the Vikings. However, if I can’t find enough to support a play on the sharper side, I will go in the opposite direction. That’s exactly what I’m doing here, as I’m rolling with the public and backing the Texans.
For as lousy as the Houston offense has looked this season, the team isn’t any worse than New York offensively. The Texans have a slight edge in Offensive DVOA (-3.7% vs. -4.1%), while the Jets have a tiny edge in EPA per play (-0.001 vs. -0.015). However, in a situation like this, I feel better about having the better quarterback. And while Aaron Rodgers is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, PFF has a grade of 80.3 on C.J. Stroud this year. Rodgers’ grade is a bit lower at 77.7. Stroud also has a much better Completion Percentage Over Expected, and the eye test also shows that the Texans have a better quarterback.
On top of that, Houston has been a much better team than New York defensively. The Texans are second in the league in Defensive DVOA (-20.0%), while the Jets are just 20th (3.8%). EPA per play doesn’t have as much of a difference, but Houston is eighth in the league (-0.070) and New York is down at 14th (-0.014).
Realistically, I just can’t see the Jets putting up a lot of points against the Texans here. I know New York’s offense has looked a lot better since Todd Downing took over, but the Jets are still leaving a lot of points on the board. And while you can say that they’re due for positive regression, there’s clearly a pretty bad stink going around in the locker room. Similarly, many look at the Texans as a regression candidate. But maybe good teams win games and bad teams don’t. Sometimes it’s that simple.
This is also a game being played on a short week, which means neither team comes into this one with much preparation time. Well, which coaching staff do you trust more here? DeMeco Ryans has done nothing but win since taking over for Houston, and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has been awesome with this Texans team. Meanwhile, the Jets have nothing but question marks on the coaching staff.
On top of all of that, the Texans are 6-2 straight-up when facing teams with losing records under Ryan. And you can say the Jets have been unlucky to this point, but 2-6 is a losing record. Also, New York is 5-10 SU against teams with winning records over the last three seasons.
Texans vs. Jets Player Props
Joe Mixon To Score A Touchdown (-140)
A lot has been made of the Texans struggling offensively, but Joe Mixon is doing just fine. Mixon has rushed for 503 and five touchdowns in five games, and his 4.9 yards per carry is the best mark he has had since the 2018 season. Mixon has also found the end zone in all but one game this season, and that was the game in which he injured his ankle. So, I’m banking on Mixon scoring again this week. This Jets team has not been able to stop the run all year, as the group is 21st in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.034). New York is also coming off a game in which it allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to find the end zone twice. So, with Mixon likely to get plenty of chances when the Texans are knocking on the door, this seems like a good price for this prop.
Texans vs. Jets Pick
The Stefon Diggs injury complicates things for a Texans team that was already a bit depleted at the wide receiver position, but that’s not enough to scare me off Houston at plus-money odds. I strongly believe that the wrong team is favored in this game, and the short week only makes me like the Texans more. I’m getting a favorable payout with the better quarterback, defense and coaching staff. Sign me up.
Bet: Texans ML (+110)
