Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 11 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
8:15 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 49.5)
The Commanders (7-3) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Steelers 28-27 and losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles (7-2) have won five straight games and just brushed aside the Cowboys 34-6, easily covering as 7-point road favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. Throughout the week, this line remained stagnant at Eagles -3.5. However, on gameday we finally saw some movement as the Eagles inched up from -3.5 to -4. Gameday movement is notable, as it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. The Eagles are only receiving 52% of spread bets but 63% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers laying the points with Philadelphia at home. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 4-2 ATS (67%) this season and 94-77 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2006. The Eagles have the edge defensively, allowing 17.8 PPG compared to the Commanders giving up 21.7 PPG.
For those looking to go the other way and grab Washington at an inflated +4, there are a few notable systems in your favor. Road dogs are 49-41 ATS (54%) this season. Dogs +4 or more are 40-34 ATS (54%) this season. Washington has buy-low value as a dog off a loss who failed to cover against a sell-high favorite off a win who covered. The Commanders are also a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
In terms of the total, it opened at 50, got bet down to 48.5 and then rose back up to 49.5 where it rests now. The over is receiving 67% of bets and 71% of dollars. When the total is 49 or more, the under is 14-10 (58%) this season and 48-25 (66%) with a 26% ROI since 2022. Outdoor divisional unders are 237-197 (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2021. Primetime unders with a total of 47 or more are 27-15 (64%) with a 23% ROI since 2022. The forecast calls for mid 40s, cloudy skies and 7 MPH winds. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, is 50-38 (57%) to the under, historically.
Player Prop to Consider
Kenneth Gainwell Over 14.5 rushing yards (-110): Gainwell rushed for 30 yards on 7 carries last week against the Cowboys. He has gone over this number in four of his last five games, averaging 27.4 rushing yards per game over that time span. The Commanders are allowing 142 rushing yards per game this season, ranking 28th in the NFL. Washington has allowed 167 rushing yards per game over their last three games in particular. Both the Eagles and Commanders rank top 5 in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed per game, so Philadelphia might look to exploit Washington on the ground as opposed to in the air.
