Week 4 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 45) at New York Giants
The Cowboys (1-2) are coming off a 28-25 loss to the Ravens, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-2) just won their first game of the season, upsetting the Browns 21-15 as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as high as a 7-point road favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for the Cowboys and currently 77% of spread bets are laying the points with Dallas. However, despite receiving this lopsided support, plus an adjustment after last week’s games, we’ve seen Dallas fall from -7 to -5.5. Some shops even reached as low as -4.5 earlier in the week. Every time this line rises up to the key number of 6, we’ve seen sharp buyback on Giants +6, dropping it back down to +5.5 where it rests now. Essentially, all movement all liability is on the side of New York plus this points, who are taking in sharp reverse line movement despite being the highly unpopular side.
The Giants are only receiving 23% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game, offering notable contrarian value. Dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 15-6 ATS (71%) with a 37% ROI this season. Primetime dogs are 124-97 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Divisional dogs are 209-179 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Brian Daboll is 19-11 ATS (63%) as a dog in his career as Giants’ head coach. Daniel Jones is 17-12 ATS (59%) as a dog getting 4.5-points or more. Those looking to bet against the public and take the points with New York would be wise to hold out for they key number of +6, as most shops are juicing up the Cowboys -5.5 (-115), hinting at a possible rise up to 6 between now and kickoff.
The total opened at 44 and rose to 45.5 earlier in the week. However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen sharp under 45.5 buyback, dropping the line back down to 45. This buyback is notable because the public is still playing the over (62% of bets), yet the line is falling back down. Unders are 27-20 (57%) this season. Primetime unders are 6-5 this season and 166-112 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. Outdoor divisional unders are 4-1 this season and 227-182 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. The forecast calls for low 70s with cloudy skies, possible rain and mild 5 MPH winds at MetLife Stadium.
Player Prop to Consider
Wan’dale Robinson over 35.5 receiving yards (-110): Robinson has gone over this number of four of his last five games. He is second on the team in targets with 24, trailing only Malik Nabers (37). He had 61 receiving yards last week against Cleveland, 18 receiving yards in Week 2 against Washington and 44 receiving yards in Week 1 against Minnesota. The Giants are a dog and could be trailing in the game, leading to more passing situations which could benefit Robinson. Also, the Cowboys are likely to focus their defensive effort on limiting Nabers, which could open up opportunities for Robinson in the middle.
