Week 3 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
8:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 45.5)
The Falcons (0-1) lost their season opener to the Steelers 18-10, losing outright as 4-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles (1-0) just took down the Packers in Brazil 34-29, covering as 2-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Philadelphia, with 84% of spread bets laying the chalk with the Eagles at home. This lopsided support drove Philadelphia up from -4 to -6.5. However, we’ve seen some sharp buyback on the Falcons, dropping Atlanta back down from +6.5 to +5.5. This line move coincided with the news that the Eagles would be without star WR A.J. Brown, who will miss this game with a hamstring injury. The next move will be meaningful, as we are currently sitting in “no man’s land” with a spread of 5.5. Will the line tick back up to the key number of -6? Or will it continue to fall back toward Atlanta +5? Paying attention to gameday juice movement will be critical, as Eagles backers would be wise to grab Philadelphia at -5.5 or less while Falcons bettors will look to hold out for a +6.
The Falcons have notable contrarian value, receiving only 16% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Week 2 dogs have gone 9-5 ATS (64%) this week and are now 65-43 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs are 122-95 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Primetime road dogs are 87-57 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020. Road dogs are 13-9 ATS (59%) so far this season and 516-434 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, is 85-68 ATS (56%) to the road team historically. Cousins started his career 1-15 straight up in primetime games but has since gone 6-2 straight up in primetime games since 2019. Those looking to go contrarian and follow the Falcons system matches could also entertain Atlanta in a teaser (+5.5 to +11.5), which passes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.
We’ve also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 48 to 45.5. This movement is notable because the public is still playing the over (56% of bets), yet the total fell. Primetime unders are 151-110 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. When the total falls at least a point, the under is 271-209 (57%) with an 8% ROI since 2021. Wrolstad is 82-72 (53%) to the under historically. The forecast calls for high 60s with cloudy skies and mild 5-8 MPH winds at Lincoln Financial Field.
Player Prop to Consider
Bijan Robinson over 30.5 receiving yards (-110): Robinson caught five passes for 43 yards in the season opener against the Steelers. He was second on the team in targets with 5, trailing only Ray-Ray McCloud (7). Robinson has gone over this number in three of his last four games. The Falcons are also a dog in this game, which means they might be playing catch up. As a result, Robinson could be in play for extra garbage yards late as well as dump off passes throughout the game.
