Week 8 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 36.5)
The Giants (2-5) have dropped two straight games and just got blown out by the Eagles 28-3, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Steelers (5-2) have won two straight and just brushed aside the Jets 37-15, easily winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs.
This early opening line for this game was Pittsburgh -4 at home. Then we quickly saw an adjustment up to Steelers -6 after they crushed the Jets and the Giants got rolled by the Eagles. The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and 83% of spread bets are laying the points with the Steelers. This heavily lopsided action drove Pittsburgh up from -6 to -6.5. However, once the hook was available we saw some sharp buyback on Giants +6.5, dropping the line back down to 6 where it currently rests.
The Giants have notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 17% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Road dogs are 40-33 ATS (55%) this season with a 5% ROI. Big dogs getting 6-points or more are 21-10 ATS (68%) with a 28% ROI. Daniel Jones is 18-9 ATS (67%) as a road dog in his career. Brian Daboll is 10-5 ATS (67%) as a dog getting 6-points or more. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like the Giants here, are 94-76 ATS (55%) since 2018. The Giants have pronounced buy-low value as a dog on a two-gaqme losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a two-game winning streak. New York also has correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in a low total game (36.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 39 to 36.5. This movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (74% of bets), yet the total fell. Primetime unders are 172-122 (59%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. When the total is 40 or less, the under is 38-31 (55%) over the past two seasons. When the total falls at least a point, the under is 297-242 (55%) since 2021. The Giants are 6-1 to the under this season, tied with the Chargers for the best under team in the NFL.
Player Prop to Consider
Darius Slayton over 27.5 receiving yards (-110): Slayton has gone over this number in three of his last four games and seven of his last ten games. This is also a buy-low play on Slayton as he only had 1 catch for 11 yards last week against Philadelphia. With Pittsburgh expected to focus on limiting Malik Nabers, who will likely to be shadowed by the Steelers’ top cornerback Joey Porter Jr, Slayton could enjoy some favorable coverage in the passing game. The Steelers are allowing 217 passing yards per game this season, ranking 20th in the NFL. Over the past three weeks, Pittsburgh is allowing 274 passing yards per game, the second most in the NFL.
