Week 1 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a primetime showdown between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
8:15 p.m. ET: New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 43)
The Jets went 7-10 last season, finishing third in the AFC East and missing the postseason. New York’s win total for this year is 10.5 with the under juiced to -145. Meanwhile, the 49ers finished 12-5 last season, winning the NFC West and reaching the Super Bowl where they fell to the Chiefs 25-22 in overtime. San Francisco’s win total for this year is 11.5 with the under juiced to -145.
This Monday Night Football line opened with the 49ers listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with San Francisco at home. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets we’ve seen the 49ers fall from -5.5 to-4. Some shops even briefly reached -3.5. This signals sharp one-way reverse line movement on the Jets, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. New York is receiving 39% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to notable contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game.
The Jets match several notable betting systems. Primetime dogs are 120-94 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Week 1 dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 59-44 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2016. Week 1 road dogs are 52-35 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016. Aaron Rodgers is 28-21 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI as a dog in his career. Kyle Shanahan is just 16-21 ATS (43%) as a home favorite. Also, Super Bowl losers are just 5-19 ATS (21%) in Week 1 of the following season over the past 24 years. Those looking to go contrarian and back the Jets would be wise to search for a hook (+4.5), or also consider the Jets in a teaser (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 43. This movement is especially notable because 58% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. This signals smart money banking on a lower scoring game despite the public going the other way. Primetime unders are 161-109 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. The forecast calls for clear skies, low 70s and mild 7-10 MPH winds.
Player Prop to Consider
Breece Hall over 28.5 receiving yards (-110): Hall has gone over this number in eight of his last twelve games. He finished second on the team in targets last season with 95, trailing only Garrett Wilson (168). San Francisco allowed a combined 48 receiving yards to Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon in the Super Bowl and 31 yards to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the NFC Championship game. The Jets are also a dog and might be playing catch up, leading to more check-downs and garbage yards.
