Week 3 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
7:30 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 46.5)
The Jaguars (0-2) are coming off an 18-13 loss to the Browns, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (2-0) just crushed the Dolphins 31-10, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the Bills and 76% of spread bets are laying the points with Buffalo. This heavily lopsided support drove the Bills up from -4.5 to -6 earlier in the week. However, once we reached the key number of 6, we saw sharp buyback on Jacksonville, dropping the Jaguars back down from +6 to +5.5. The next move will be meaningful, as we are currently sitting in “no man’s land” at 5.5. If we see the line creep back up to 6 on gameday, that will be a sign of further Bills support. If it falls back down to 5, that will signal continued Jags buyback.
The Jaguars have notable contrarian value, receiving only 24% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 123-96 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Conference dogs +6 or less are 409-332 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2019. Road dogs are 19-13 ATS (59%) this season and 522-438 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Teams that enter Week 3 with an 0-2 record and are a dog getting points have gone 37-15 ATS (71%) with a 37% ROI since 2017, including 4-0 ATS this season. Home teams that are 2-0 and favored in Week 3 are 31-38 ATS (45%) since 2006. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 54-37 ATS (59%) to the road team historically.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47 to 46.5. This movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (67%) of bets, yet the line fell. This represents sharp reverse line movement on the under. Unders are 27-18 (60%) so far this season. Primetime unders are 6-3 (67%) so far this season and 166-110 (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2019. The forecast calls for high 60s with cloudy skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds at Highmark Stadium.
8:15 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 46.5)
The Commanders (1-1) just held off the Giants 21-18, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bengals (0-2) came up just short against the Chiefs, losing 26-25 but covering as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for the Bengals and 70% of spread bets are laying the points with Cincinnati. This lopsided support has driven the Bengals up from -7 to -7.5. However, we are seeing the Commanders getting juiced up +7.5 (-115), indicating some possible Washington buyback plus the hook and a fall back down to 7. If all of the 7.5s disappear and we head back down to 7, that will be further evidence of Commanders buyback showing up. Whether or not the hook stays around will be critical to monitor on gameday.
The Commanders have notable contrarian value, receiving only 30% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Road dogs are 19-13 ATS (59%) this season and 522-438 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs are 123-96 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Big dogs +6.5 or more are 9-1 ATS this season and 97-72 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2022. Joe Burrow is just 2-6 ATS (25%) as a favorite of 7-points or more.
Sharps have also leaned under. This total opened as high as 49 and has since fallen to 46.5. Primetime unders are 6-3 (67%) so far this season and 166-110 (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2019. The forecast calls for low 70s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Paycor Stadium.
Player Props to Consider
James Cook over 61.5 rushing yards (-110): Cook has gone over this number in both games this season, rushing for 71 yards in Week 1 against Arizona and 78 yards in Week 2 against Miami. He has gone over this number in 7 of his last 9 home games. The Jags gave up 81 rushing yards in Week 1 against Miami and allowed 125 rushing yards in Week 2 against the Browns.
Brian Robinson over 53.5 rushing yards (-110): Robinson rushed for 133 yards last week against the Giants. The Bengals gave up 170 rushing yards to the Patriots in Week 1 and allowed 149 rushing yards to the Chiefs in Week 3.
