Tonight Week 3 of the NFL regular season kicks off with a primetime AFC East showdown between the New England Patriots and New York Jets. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
8:15 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6, 38.5)
The Patriots (1-1) are coming off a 23-20 loss against the Seahawks, pushing as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Jets (1-1) just took down the Titans 24-17, covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with New York listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 bet split we’ve seen the Jets fall from -7 to -6. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even, as the oddsmakers theoretically have no reason to adjust the number. So, based on the line move, we can infer that pro money has sided with the Patriots plus the points.
Dogs are 17-14 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI so far to start the season, with dogs +6 or more a perfect 8-0 ATS. Road dogs are 14-9 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI this season and 517-434 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Divisional dogs are 208-178 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020. Historically, divisional dogs have barked louder than non-division dogs due to the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Primetime dogs are 123-95 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. New England also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Those looking to follow the sharp Patriots move and betting system matches would be wise to hold out for a hook (+6.5), as some shops are juicing up the Jets -6 (-115), indicating a possible rise up to -6.5 between now and kickoff.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from as high as 40.5 down to 38.5. It even reached as low as 37.5 before some over buyback brought it back up a point. The under is receiving 57% of bets and 60% of dollars. Unders are 17-14 (55%) with a 5% ROI to start the season. Outdoor divisional unders are 3-0 so far this season and 226-181 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. When the total falls at least a point off the opener, the under is 272-209 (57%) with an 8% ROI since 2021. Primetime unders are 4-3 so far this season and 164-110 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 79-63 (56%) to the under historically. The forecast calls for low 70s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds at MetLife Stadium.
Player Prop to Consider
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 64.5 rushing yards (-110): Stevenson rushed for 120 yards in the season opener against the Bengals and 81 yards last week against the Seahawks. He has gone over 64.5 rushing yards in five of his last six games. The Jets gave up 180 rushing yards to the 49ers in Week 1 and 130 rushing yards to the Titans last week. New York ranks 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game with 155.
