Week 12 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 50.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Ravens (7-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Steelers 18-16 and losing outright as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (7-3) have won four straight and just edged the Bengals 34-27, covering as 1-point home favorites.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Ravens. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Ravens fall from -3 to -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Baltimore to begin with? Because respected sharp action has pounced on Chargers +3, triggering wiseguy reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog. Those looking to follow the sharp move could either shop around or wait for the key number of +3 to reappear or they could elect to play Los Angeles in a “Wong Teaser.” By taking the Chargers up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy value-minded bettors are able to pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
The Chargers have notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 24% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs getting 2.5-points or more are 118-98 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Justin Herbert is 12-8 ATS (60%) as a dog getting 2.5-points or more. Jim Harbaugh is 45-26 ATS (63%) as a head coach in the NFL, including 7-2-1 ATS (78%) with the Chargers this season. Lamar Jackson has been excellent as a dog (12-2 ATS, 86%) but only 36-37 ATS (49%) as a favorite. The Chargers are 4-1 at home. The Ravens are 3-3 on the road. Los Angeles has a big edge defensively, allowing only 14.5 PPG while Baltimore gives up 24.6 PPG.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a flood of over movement as the total opened at 47.5 and has been bet up to 50.5 or even 51 at some shops. The over is receiving 50% of bets but 59% of dollars at DraftKings, signaling an undecided public but also respected sharp action on a higher scoring game. At Circa Sports, the over is receiving 62% of bets and 69% of dollars, another “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy. Monday Night Football overs are 10-4 (71%) this season.
Player Prop to Consider
Joshua Palmer Over 35.5 receiving yards (-110): Palmer has gone over this number in six of his last seven games. However, this is still a bit of a buy-low over play as he only hauled in two catches for 23 yards last week against the Bengals. The Ravens rank dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (284.5). This is also an indoor game with a high total, which bodes well for offensive player output.
