Week 18 of the NFL regular season kicks off today with a doubleheader of Saturday games. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
4:30 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-20, 41)
The Browns (3-13) have lost five straight games and just fell to the Dolphins 20-3, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Ravens (11-5) have won three in a row and just crushed the Texans 31-2, easily covering as 6.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 17.5-point home favorite. Despite the Browns being eliminated from playoff contention and starting Bailey Zappe at quarterback, the public thinks this line is still a bit too high. However, despite Cleveland receiving 68% of spread bets at DraftKings and 60% of spread bets at Circa, we’ve seen the line move further in favor of Baltimore -17.5 to -20. Some books are even up to -20.5. In other words, we are seeing sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Ravens to win and cover in blowout fashion. The movement toward Baltimore has also been steady and consistent all week with no buyback on Cleveland. At DraftKings, the Ravens are receiving 32% of spread bets and 41% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Ravens are taking in 40% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of Baltimore.
The Ravens enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on December 25th compared to the Browns last playing on December 29th. Also, unlike Cleveland, the Ravens have something to play for as they are competing with the Steelers to win the AFC North division.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 35% of bets but 45% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 48% of bets but 63% of dollars. Both books are displaying a sharp discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 20s with cloudy skies and 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 242-175 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2016. Scott Novak, the lead ref, is 54% to the under historically.
8 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals (8-8) have won four straight and just outlasted the Broncos 30-24 in overtime, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (10-6) have dropped three straight and just got rolled by the Chiefs 29-10, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Early in the week, we saw the Bengals fall to as low as -1. But since that time we’ve seen steady buyback on the Bengals, with Cincinnati getting steamed back up to -2.5. Pros and Joes seem to both be leaning Cincinnati in a must-win spot to keep their playoff hopes alive. At DraftKings, the Bengals are taking in 75% of spread bets and 79% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Bengals are receiving 78% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars. Road favorites are 57-43 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI this season. In his career, Joe Burrow is 9-6 ATS (60%) as a favorite of 3-points or less, including 5-2 ATS (71%) as a road favorite of -3 or less. Cincinnati has a big edge on offense, averaging 28.3 PPG on the season, including 30.3 PPG over their last three games. In comparison, Pittsburgh has averaged 22.7 PPG this season and just 13.3 PPG over their last three games.
Those looking to back Cincinnati in a must-win spot but wary or laying points in what might be a close game could instead play the Bengals on the moneyline at -140. Road favorites are 76-27 (74%) straight up with a 12% ROI this season. Since Week 13, favorites in general are 60-17 (78%) straight up with an 11% ROI. On the season, favorites are 183-73 (72%) straight up with a 5% ROI, the 5th-best straight up favorite record since 2005.
For those looking to go contrarian and buy-low on Pittsburgh, the Steelers are in a prime “Wong Teaser” zone. By taking the Steelers up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy value-driven bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 47.5 to 48.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 65% of bets and 61% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 63% of bets but a whopping 92% of dollars. The forecast calls for frigid 19 degree temperatures with 10-12 MPH winds.
