Today we have a loaded NFL Sunday Week 8 slate with 14-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5, 45)
The Colts (4-3) have won two straight games and just brushed aside the Dolphins 16-10, covering as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (5-2) just saw their three-game win streak end, falling to the Packers 24-22 but covering as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Houston listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Texans. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets we’ve seen Houston fall from -6.5 to -4.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. Indianapolis is only receiving 24% of spread bets but 33% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Colts have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Road dogs are 37-28 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season. “Sweet Spot” road dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 19-10 ATS (66%) with a 25% ROI. C.J. Stroud is 6-2 ATS (75%) as a dog but just 5-9 ATS (36%) as a favorite. The Colts are also in a prime “Wong Teaser” position (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 45. The under is receiving only 38% of bets but 58% of dollars, a massive sharp under bet split. When the total falls at least a full point in a divisional game, the under is 9-7 (56%) this season and 185-157 (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2017.
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons (-2, 46.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons (4-3) just saw their three-game winning streak end, falling to the Seahawks 34-14 and failing to cover as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-3) just lost to the Ravens 41-31, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. The early opener for this game was Bucs -2.5 at home. However, following a pair of key injuries to Tampa Bay WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, we’ve seen a huge shift in line movement toward the Falcons, who have flipped from a 2.5-point road dog to a 2-point road favorite. Some shops are even showing -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the Falcons from open to current. Atlanta is receiving 67% of spread bets but 73% of spread dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support from the betting public and wiseguys alike. Road favorites are 24-12 ATS (67%) this season. The Falcons enjoy a “rest vs tired advantage,” as they played on Sunday while the Bucs are on a short week having played a physical game against the Ravens on Monday night. Those looking to follow the sharp Falcons move but wary of now laying points in what might be a close game could instead target Atlanta on the moneyline at -130. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 55-43 ATS (56%) to the road team, historically. We’ve also seen this total fall from 49.5 to 46.5. Outdoor divisional unders are 11-9 (55%) this season and 234-190 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2021.
8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-5, 47)
The Cowboys (3-3) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Lions 47-9 and failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the 49ers (3-4) just fell to the Chiefs 28-18, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. The early opener for this game was 49ers -6.5 at home. The public is leaning toward laying the points with the 49ers in a “get right spot.” However, despite receiving 55% of spread bets we’ve seen San Francisco fall from -6.5 to -5. We even saw the line tick down to -4.5 at times briefly throughout the week. Dallas is receiving 45% of spread bets but 51% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like Dallas here, are covering roughly 56% of the time since 2018. “Sweet Spot” road dogs +4.5 or more are 19-10 ATS (66%) this season. Primetime dogs are 128-106 ATS (55%) since 2020. The Cowboys enjoy a notable notable “rest vs tired” advantage as Dallas is coming off a bye week while the 49ers played on Sunday. Dallas is 3-0 on the road this season but 0-3 at home. The 49ers will be without WR Brandon Aiyuk, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. We’ve also seen this total fall from 50.5 to 47. The under is receiving 38% of bets but a whopping 60% of dollars, a massive smart money under discrepancy. Primetime unders are 172-120 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2019. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds, which would qualify as a “windy under” system match.
